Hi ya Frank, how are the wife and kids?
you know, shouldn't y'all be considering treasury bonds or utility stocks? Smoke?
in the late seventies
banking wasn't a job you went into to make large sums of money.
It was a fucking snooze!
Filled with losers!
Like selling insurance, or.... accounting
And if banking was boring...
then the bond department at the bank was straight up comatose.
We all know about bonds....
You give em to your snot nosed kid when he turns fifteen
Maybe when he's thirty he makes a hundred bucks.
That is until Lewis Rainieri came on the scene at Salomon Brothers
You might not know who he is
But he changed your life more than Michael Jordan, the I-Pod and Youtube put together!
比起乔丹 iPod 视频网站加起来还要大
Hey Gentlemen, let's get some money in here. Let's make some money! What do you say?!
先生们 咱们一起发财吧 怎么样
You see, Lewis didn't know it yet, but he already changed banking forever
with one simple idea.
The mortgage backed security.
or... Private Label MBS
You got your average persons mortgage
fixed rate, thirty years, boring! Same, small payoff. Right!
固定利率 30年还清 没意思 定额小笔钱偿还 就这样了
when you add thousands of them all bundled together
suddenly, the yield goes up, but the risk is still small, because....
Well, they're mortgages, and who the hell doesn't pay their mortgage?
What exactly is the credit-rating on this bond?
This bond gentlemen... Is AAA-Rating!
This is exactly what the Michigan State Pension fund has been looking for!
I'll buy twenty million! -Oh come on, live a little!
- 我买两千万 - 别扫兴啊 放开点
Twenty five million!
The money came raining down!
And for the first time, the banker went from the country-club to the strip-club.
Pretty soon, stocks and savings were almost inconsequential.
They were doing fifty, a hundred, two hundred billion in mortgage bonds
每年大伙都买卖5百亿 1千亿 2千亿的房贷证券
and dozens of other securities a year.
1970年代末 Christie Brinkley模特演员 因泳装封面照出名
1986年8月20日 吉姆·贝克“传承会”教会演讲 后因其性丑闻组织破裂
1982 巴斯奎特作品《Self Potrait As A Heel》, 1988年去世
1990 说唱歌手LL Cool J歌曲《Mama Said Knock You Out》
1998年8月15日 iMac G3 第一台苹果一体机 精简型电脑的鼻祖
1990年代 歌手Snoop Doggy Dogg和Tupac
2002 科恩《AliG个人秀》上映 也是《波拉特》主演
It all came crashing down!
Bear Stearns was in a death spiral and the FED brokered it's sale.
The worst financial crisis in modern times
The largest financial disaster in decades
And perhaps the end of the era
5 million unemployed
In the end Lewis Rainier's mortgage backed security mutated into a monstrosity that collapsed the whole world economy
到最后 刘易斯的房贷证券 异变成了摧毁全球经济的怪物
And none of the experts, or leaders, or talking heads had a clue it was coming.
and I'm guessing most of you still don't really know what happened.
Yeah, you got a sound bite you repeat so you don't sound dumb, but come on....
Our financial institutions are strong!
But there were some who saw it coming.
While the whole world was having a big old party, few outsiders and weirdos saw what no-one else could.
Not me, I'm not a weirdo, I'm pretty fucking cool, but... we'll meet again later!
不是我 我才不怪呢 等会再跟你说我的酷事儿
These outsiders saw the giant lie at the heart of the economy
and they saw it by doing something the rest of the suckers never thought to do.
Through the nineteen thirties....
The housing market collapsed... nationwide.
By roughly 80 percent.
And half of all .. eh ... mortgage debt was in default.
There were.. Very......
Specific identifiers. Extremely recognizable.
wait... for instance
W-w-w-w one of the hallmarks of mania.
is that rapid rise and complexity, and the rates... they frauded
Did you know.... They're going up!
I've always been.. more comfortable.. when alone.
I believe... maybe... it's because of... my glass eye.
i lost the eye... in a childhood illness.
separates me from people.
Did you know... They're going up!
Highest fraud rates since the nineteen thirties.
-No, I didn't know that.
I mean.. ghe ghe ghe... nine ... nineteen thirty three
the fourth year of the great depression
-You were playing so great son, even heard the coach say it!
Can we just go home?
All social interf.. actions are awkward for me and for the.... person
Even when i try to compliment... it somehow... it comes out wrong....
You have a very nice haircut, you do it yourself?
I'm sorry... please...
I'm going on and on. My wife told me i need to share more.
-That seems healthy.
So .. I get the job? I really think i could help you fund.
Yeah.... Yeah... sure!
- You're -David!... David.... Great!
- 你叫 … - 大卫 太棒了
I guess I'll go find a desk. Is there anything you want me to work on for start?
-You could let me know later!
D... d... d... did ya... did you
Think it was strange when...
the tech-bubble burst in 2001
And the housing market in San- Jose.
Tech-Capital of the world....
it's strange... -No, no!
it's housing... housing is always stable... low-risk.
That's the idea ... yeah.
I want you to get me....
The ... eh....Top-20 selling mortgage bonds
-So, you want to know what the top-20 selling mortgage bonds are?
No, no, no, i want to know what mortgages are in each one
-Wha.. wait... -Aren't those mortgages made up of
-Wait... aren't those bonds made up of thousands and thousands of mortgages?
Right away, Dr. Burry.
bgm:《Blood and Thunder》by Mastodon
a nice guy... all day long.
hmm.. ask anyone...hmm, I'm a pleasure to work with.
But the second my son screws up
yelling at him... just like my dad did to me.
You hear the words that are coming out of my mouth.
Sorry I'm late, no cabs!
I met with this retail banker yesterday..
I'm supposed to be getting him to invest in a fund,
instead, i start drilling him about overdraft analysis
and how his bank will let customers write ten... twelve cheques
Before telling them they're overdrawing.
is making billions off screwing over people this way.
And I'm getting madder and madder, and i ask him.
I look him in the face and i say:
How can you sleep at night, knowing... that you're ripping off working people.
And know what he did.... He left!
He just walks out of the lunch, doesn't say a word.
What the fuck is that? Who's fucked up in that scenario?
Am i? Or is this douche-bag?
who leaves me hanging... Is he the fucked up one?
Trying to make me feel bad about myself! -We have talk about this numerous times
- 还给我脸色看 - 咱们以前说过几次了
Fuck him! -You can't come in late and hijack the entire session!
- 让他去死吧 - 你不能迟到了就抢别人的话
What do you mean, i didn't hijack the meeting.
Did i hijack this session? -Yeah
- 我抢话了吗 - 抢了
I'm in commodities.
Good luck with that!
I know you've suffered a terrible loss,
Do you want to talk about that?
I don't talk about that.
Hold on.. Shit.. let's take this, sorry!
稍等…靠 我得接电话了 抱歉
I don't care Porter...
This guy's whole business is build upon ripping people off,how long can that last?
That's 30 days late, that's 60 days late.
They're caught up with their pants....
Loan to Value.... maybe 5
60 days late, jeez!
I've never heard of that.
He hasn't move all day.
He does this every few days.
Hasn't spoken to me since he hired me.
Michael, how are you guy?!
Lawrence, I've put out something really interesting...
Great Michael, whenever you find something interesting, we all sit to make money.
麦克你干的好 你每次找到有意思的东西 我们就能躺着赚钱了
What stock are you vowing?
No, no , no no.. I wanna, i wanna short the housing market.
Really? But the housing market is rock-solid!
Greenspan just said: "Bubbles are regional, defaults are rare!"
格林斯潘说过 泡沫是局部现象 断供的很少
Tell em I'll be there in a minute
Look... Greenspan's wrong!
Look, i don't think you mean to do this, but eh..
sometimes you sound very dismissive and superior.
It's a fact, Greenspan's wrong. I don't know how if you want your thr....
事情本来就是这样 格林斯潘错了 你让我怎么说…
Metro Capital backed you four years ago when you were a Doctor with a
dinky web page and some inheritance money,
We've all done very well, look... Why don't you just stick with stocks....
You know me.... I, I, I, I,
I look for value, wherever it can be found.
That these mortgage backed securities
Are filled with extremely risky sub-prime adjustable rates.
and when the majority of these adjustable rates kick in.... in '07
They will begin to fail
and if they fail above 15 percent the whole bond is worthless.
-Michael, just take a beat, we'll talk about this later!
麦克 停下来再想想 回头我再找你聊
Lawrence please, don't patronize me, if ... it .. is...
-Mortgage backed securities, sub-prime loans, tranches....
房贷证券 次级贷 份额…
Is pretty confusing right?
Doesn't it make you feel bored.... or stupid....
Well... it's supposed to.
Wall-street loves to use confusing terms, to make you think only they can do what they do.
Or even better.....
for you just to leave them the fuck alone.
So... here's Margot Robbie in a bubble-bath to explain.
Basically, Lewis Rainieri's mortgage bonds were amazingly profitable for the big banks.
大概意思就是 刘易斯的房贷证券 让大银行疯狂赚钱
They made billions and billions off of their 2% fee they got for selling each of these bonds
But then they start ranning out of mortgages to put in them.
After all, there are only so many homes and so many people with good enough jobs to buy them... right?
So the banks started filling these bonds with riskier and riskier mortgages
That way, they can keep that profit machine churning right?
By the way, these risky mortgages are called: Sub-Prime.
对了 这些高风险的房贷 就叫：次级贷
So... whenever you hear sub-prime... think: Shit
下回 听到次级贷这个词 你就想：狗屎贷
Our friend Michael Burry found out,
that these mortgages bonds
that were supposedly 65 percent AAA, were actually just, basically full of shit.
So now he's going to short the bonds
which means.... Bet against.
Got it?.... Good!
It's only a matter of time before someone else sees this investment, we have to act now.
How do you know the bonds are worthless?
Aren't they filled with fucking thousands of pages of mortgages?
-You read them? I read.... Yeah!
- 你都看了 - 我都看了
No-one reads them, only the lawyers who put them together read them!
I don't think they even know what they've made
The housing market is propped up on these bad loans.
It's a time-bomb and i want to short it.
Through what instrument Michael?
There are no insurance-contracts or options for mortgage bonds.
The bonds are too stable!
This is what I'm gonna do....
I am gonna get a bank to make me one.
I don't want that kind of business!
Money is not money! That's bad money!
Let me ask you this: What company treats its customers that shittily and succeeds?
我问你 什么公司这么玩弄客户 还能做大
Fine... OK... Goldman....
Mark Baum had built his career on never assuming anyone
or any company was legit without proving it.
When he was a kid he excelled at studying the Talmud and Yeshiva.
Whatever! But, one day his Rabbi told his mom why.
Paul is a fine boy and Mark is an excellent student of the Torah and Talmud
Then what's the problem Rabbi?
It's the reason Mark is studying so hard.
He's looking for inconsistencies in the word of God!
So has he found any?
Later Baum started his own fund on Wall-street.
He had an amazing nose for bullshit.
He wasn't afraid to let anyone know, when and where the bull had gone number 2.
Then a tragedy happened to Mark and it turned his whole world really dark
and ready to believe the whole system was a lie.
It's Cynthia, I'll be in the office in twenty minutes.
The therapist called.... You did it again!
There were no cabs... What was i supposed to do?
I worry about you Mark!
You're running around like you have to right every wrong in the world.
-Ok... -How angry
- 好吧… - 一直气鼓鼓的
Fine! You know what... I'm a mean guy and I'm pissed off!
你说的对 我就是心眼小 现在还生气了
But... It is a shitstorm out here sweetie. You have no idea the kind of crap people are pulling.
可我这个圈子 留下烂摊子 擦屁股走人的太多
and everybody is walking around like they're in a goddamn Enya-video.
They're all getting screwed you know!
You know what they care about? They care about the ballgame!
Or they care about what actresses went into rehab!
I, I think you should try medication!
No, no, we agreed, if it interfered with work.
不行 咱俩商量过 影响工作的药不能吃
you hate Wall-street, but maybe it's time to quit?
I love my job! -You hate your job!
- 我爱这一行 - 你恨这一行
I love my job! -You're miserable!
- 我爱这一行 - 你都这么郁闷了
I love my job, I love my job honey!
I am sad every day about what happened.
I know you must feel the same, but you never show it!
I knew how close you were to your brother.
Everyday i think you're gonna talk about it, and you never do!
Will you ever think about the idea of making a change?
Fine, fine, honey, you know what, i will consider it, but honestly....
好吧 亲爱的 我会认真考虑的…
Cynthia I'm OK, I really am!
Hey, Hey! No, no, my cab!
That's my cab, that's my cab, That is my cab!
-Schmuck! -Fuck you! -Fuck you!
- 蠢货 - 滚蛋 - 你滚蛋
I'll call you later.
I wanna buy.... swaps on mortgage bonds
Credit default swap, that will pay off...
If the underlying.... bond fails.
-You want to bet against the housing market? - Yes
- 你想要赌房价跌 - 是的
Those bonds only fail if millions of Americans don't pay their mortgages.
That's never happened in history.
If you'll excuse me Dr. Burry, that seems like a foolish investment.
恕我直言 贝利博士 我觉得您投资不太明智
Based on... prevailing sentiment of the market and banks, and popular culture...
Yes, it's a foolish investment. But eh...
This is Wall-street Dr. Burry, if you offer us free money, we're going to take it
贝利博士 华尔街是赚钱的地方 有免费的钱我们自然来者不拒
My one concern is, is that.. eh.. when the bonds fail..
Eh... i want to be certain,
of payment, in case of solvency issues with the bank.
-I'm sorry, are you for real?
You want to bet against the housing market, and you're worried we won't pay you?
yes.. that's correct.
Listen.. I think we will make this work
mortgage bond is never gonna crash
bacause it's so solid right now
getting on and deal with it
Dr Burry, we could work out a pay-as-we-go structure that would payout if the bonds fail.
It would also apply to your payments if the value of the mortgage-fund goes up
You'd have to pay us monthly premiums.
Is that acceptable Dr. Burry?
Em.. I have prospectuses on,
six mortgage-backed securities i want to show you
The majority of them are accepted mortgages.
Dr Burry, these should be fine!
We're prepared to sell you 5 million in credit default swaps on these mortgage bonds.
Can we make it a hundred million?
Absolutely! We can make it one-hundred million.
We'll be in touch, send some paperwork over.
I like these cups, could i take one for my son? -Have one, Yes, Yes!
- 我挺喜欢这杯子的 想给我儿子带一个 - 拿走吧 好的
bgm:《Money Maker》by Ludacris
“互换”像两人对赌 如果房市上涨那么麦克要按月交保险费 因为银行承担风险
Is there any way to do two-hundred million?
We can... But are you sure?
Absolutely... Absolutely, we can!
-We do, eh... different projects we do gardening, we do
the bonds.... I'd like to .. eh...
- It's not bad for yourself to be found extreme.It's very cool!
I ordered the 24-ounce T-bone
which was choice rather than the 8-ounce filet I went for volume
rather than prime I went for subprime.. and just..
Hey Randall, what with the Dom? Bonuses aren't for three months.
兰德 三个月后才发奖金 你现在就这么逍遥
We just sold 200 million in credit-swaps for mortgage-bonds
Some fund-manager from California, fucking crazy right?!
Only way to make money dog!
-I didn't know there were swaps on mortgages
There are now, we made it for him!
His head must have caught up with his hole or do something... I don't know.
Want one? No?
- 来一杯吗 - 稍等
Did you hear about the deal that Randall did with some fund-manager?
He's a foot-soldier, I'm sure it's a shit deal.
I told you we'd meet later.
Unfortunately... It's in a place like this, which i would never be in.
I never hung out with these idiots after work, Ever! I had fashion friends.
Apparently this guy wanted two-hundred mill in credit default swaps.
Randall made the sale, can you believe it?
Somebody shorted two-hundred mill in mortgage bonds?
That was just with Deutsche...
Word is... he had half the town.
That's... that's pretty much all of Scion's liquidity!
Michael, that's highly distressing!
Lawrence.... That is not all of our liquidity!
And I'm not certain that you really understand this trade.
This is a certainty.
Mike, i consider myself a mentor to you.
But our company is not comfortable with this investment.
Am i being clear? - Lawrence
- 我说话你听明白了吗 - 劳伦斯
I have full autonomy when it comes to investment strategy
You can read our agreement.
Do not throw our acception- agreement in my face Michael!
We had an underlying understanding, you wouldn't act like a goddamn crazy man!
This is not crazy....
it's all very logical.
So now we pay up premiums on these swaps against housing-market until the mortgages fail?
we lose millions until something that has never happened before... Happens?
“我是我命运的主宰 灵魂的统帅” -英国诗人 威廉·亨利《永不屈服》
-Hello Mark Baum Oh hey Kathy!
- 你好 马克 - 你好 凯茜
It wasn't me, I had a personal thing this afternoon. -I'm not your babysitter.
- 别怪我 我下午有私事 - 我不是你的保姆
If your appoint makes money for Morgan Stanley I'm happy!
OK... Hey did I hear you're expecting?
Ehh, we're expecting to be expecting...
I'd be upset clearing this out, but we're .. - That's exciting!
- 虽然我不好解释得太清楚… - 那也是好事儿
Lump.. in my ball
I'll go in for a scan -Hmm
Turns out i have large thing, called an epididymis
Which is a thing that goes around the ball
And is like a sack underneath.
I have an extremely pronounced epididymis
Almost as large as another testicle on itself
So get this.... Cynthia.. Guys!
Cynthia wants me to quit! And open a B&B in Vermont.
That's great! I'd love to see Mark Baum run a Bed and Breakfast!
Like: Here's your steel-cut oatmeal asshole!
Mark refused to kiss the ring of the people with the checkbooks,
so he had to set up his fund under Morgan Stanley's umbrella.
His small team his... distrust of the system.
You guys are sick.. You're sick!
She says, this job is making me unhappy.
-But you're happy when you're unhappy!
I am happy when I'm unhappy!
You know how to make a muffin?
Mark's numbers guy.
Do you even know how to do laundry? Make a bed? -Okay!
Vinny lost his father to a violent crime when he was young
Just like Mark, he didn't talk about it.
-I don't talk about that!
Cynthia's no joke, she could actually make him move to Vermont!
I mean, she made me start wearing a suit.
Porter Collins, former Olympic rower, went to Brown.
He worked with Baum at a previous firm, and couldn't figure out why no-one listened to Baum.
The guy with all the good ideas.
Sir, yeah, i know, do you have the wrong FrontPoint? Cause there is another front-point in this same building that is Baum's
And Danny Moses, the optimist of the bunch.
And a hell of a trader, which is the only reason they put up with his bullshit optimism.
You're a weird caller, you take longer with a wrong number than anybody else
I mean... it's this guy... from... Deutsche, who was talking about shorting housing bonds.
And then, in the middle of the call where I had realized he had the wrong front-point.
and then... and then... cause he wanted the one on the eighth floor.
He wanted to short housing bonds? - Hmmm
- 他想要做空房贷证券 - 嗯
-It happens like five times a day, that somebody uses the wrong front-point.
We should change our name!
Wait, wait... He wanted to short housing bonds?
Who bets against housing?
- What's the ABX at? - What's ABX?
- 资产担保证券指数到几点了 - 这指数什么意思
-It tracks sub-prime mortgage bond value. -Go back to sleep!
- 用来跟踪次级房贷证券的价值 - 快睡你的觉
The ABX is at ... eh....
Wow! it's down, It's down 3 points since last year, that's weird.
我的天 降下来了 去年到现在降了3点 这不对劲
I haven't heard a peep about that!
What was this guys name? Jared Vennett... Vennett
That's right! These lucky sons of bitches caught wind
of one of the best trades in Wall-street history from a wrong number.
They should've paid 10 percent to my fuck up state system
He was Jared Vennett, Vennett
Jared Vennett, from Deutsche, sounded very sketchy. -Sounds like a douche-bag.
- 杰瑞德·威内特 德意志银行 听着就不靠谱 - 听他说话就让人不爽
OK.. Hi.... how are you?! -Have a seat!
- 你们好啊 - 请坐
Hey mister Vennett from Deutsche Bank, who do we have?
So, how many people have you talked to about this trade? - A few.
- 你和多少人聊过 - 有几个
There's definitely some interest.
My boss would have my ass
are you crazy Jer?
Which is why you're here talking to us on the wrong number?
Sounds like there's a lot of interest. -Alright.
- 听着确实感兴趣的人不少哇 - 好吧
A few people have us in, just to laugh at me on this deal, is that you?
Is that what this is?
That's not what this is, that's just how Mark is.
Let's see what you got.
I'm sorry, do you smell that, what is that? - What?
- 你闻到什么东西了吗 - 什么
What's that smell? -Cologne?
- 这是什么味道 - 古龙水吗
I smell money...
goddammit! -I'm sorry.
- 手脚利索点 - 抱歉
This is your basic mortgage bond.
Alright, the originals were simple.
They were just thousands of AAA-mortgages bundled together,
guaranteed by the US-government.
The modern ones are different.
They're private. And they're made up of layers of tranches.
Highest level AAA's getting paid first.
The lowest rated B's getting paid last, taking on defaults first.
No obviously if you're buying B's you could make more money.
But, they're a little risky, sometimes they fail.
Somewhere along the line, these B's and BB's went from a little risky to dogshit.
某处开始 有些B级或者2B级 从有点风险 变成狗屎贷
I'm talking rock-bottom Fico-scores.
adjustable rates... Dogshit!
The default-rates are already up from one to four percent fellas.
And if they rise to eight percent... and they will!
A lot of these BBB's are going to zero too.
And that.... You're too close...
Is an opportunity.
OK, You're saying that at 8 percent the bonds fail and we're already at 4 percent?
That's right. -If they go to eight.... It's Armageddon.
- 没错 - 到了8就是世界末日了
Yeah that's right. -How come nobody's talking about this?
- 是的 - 那怎么没人提到过这事儿
And you're completely sure of the math?
My quantitative... My maths specialist! Look at him!
You notice anything different about him? Look at his face!
That's very racist
Look at his eyes! I'll give you a hint..
His name is Yang!
He won a national maths competition.. In China!
He doesn't even speak English!
Yeah! I'm sure of the math.
Actually, my name is JIANG
and... I do speak English
Jared likes to say it though.. because he thinks it makes me seem more authentic
And... i got second in that national math competition
So.... You're offering us a chance to short this pile of blocks?
With something called a credit default swap.
It's like insurance on the bond, and if it goes bust, you can make 10-to-1.
就像是证券的保险 不过如果证券完了 那你能拿到10倍的赔偿
Even 20-to-1 return, and it's already slowly going bust.
10-to-1, 20-to-1.... No way!
10倍 20倍 怎么可能
And no-one is paying attention.
No-one is paying attention.
Because the banks are too busy getting paid obscene fees to sell these bonds.
But wait.... You are the bank
You work for the bank, i bet your margins are pretty nice and fat.
Let's not talk about my margins by the way.
Being nice and fat.... That's a nice shirt, do they make it for men?
这是我私事…好比我看你衬衫不错 问你在哪买来的女装 好玩吗
Aren't you the bank?
I work for the bank!
I don't think like a bank
Big banks, small bank... I like to make money.
Alright...Let me put it this way....
I'm standing in front of a burning house,
And I'm offering you fire insurance on it
-How can these underlying bonds be... as bad as you say?
It wouldn't be legal!
Nobody knows what's in them!
Nobody knows, what's in the bonds,
I've seen some that are 65 percent AAA-rating.
That i know, for a fact, are filled with 95 percent sub-prime shit.
With Fico's below 550
信用评分都低于550 （FICO评分300-850 700以上认为是优）
Get the fuck out of here!
Want me to really blow your mind?
When the market deems a bond too risky to buy, what do you think we do with it?
I don't know, you tell me!
You think we just warehouse it on the books?
No, we just repackage it, with a bunch of other shit that didn't sell
假的 实际上我们重新打包 混上其他卖不出去的东西
and put it into a CDO.
A CDO? -Yes... a CDO.
- CDO - 对 这东西叫CDO
Where we take a bunch of B's, BB's and BBB's that haven't sold
把一些没人买的B 2B 3B级烂贷
and we put em in a pile...
and when the pile gets large enough, the whole is suddenly considered 'Diversified'.
and then... the whores of the rating agency,
Give it a 92 / 93 percent AAA-rating, no questions asked...
Holy... what! Say that again!
Collateralized Debt Obligations
It's important to understand, because it's what allowed the housing crisis
become a nationwide economic disaster.
Here's world-famous chef Anthony Bourdain to explain.
OK, I'm a chef on a Sunday-afternoon setting the menu of a big restaurant.
I ordered my fish on Friday, which is the mortgage bond that Michael Burry shorted.
But... some of the fresh doesn't sell..
I don't know why, maybe it just came halibut
has the intelligence of a dolphin.
So... what am i gonna do?
throw all this unsold fish, which is the BBB-level of bond, in the garbage?
Being a crafty and morally honorous chef that i am...
Every crappy levels of the bond i don't sell... i throw into a seafood stew.
It's not old fish! It's a whole new thing!
The best part is.... They're eating retailed halibut!
That... is a CDO.
I just need to know how these could possibly be correlated.
You're like D- D- Dora the Explorering, you're the first person who has found this...
So.. hold on.. So mortgage bonds are dogshit?
CDO's are dogshit wrapped in catshit.
Yeah... that's right!
Institutions treat these CDO's like they're as solid as treasury bonds.
and they're going to zero..
No, that can't be right, there, there, are 500 billion in housing bonds sold last year alone
Ratings agencies, the banks.... the fucking government?
信用评级机构 银行 政府也掺和在里面
You're saying they're all asleep at the wheel?
Yeah! My whole department is long this stuff.
They call me chicken little.
They call me Bubble-boy.
B's.. Zero, BB's ..... Zero.
BBB's .... Zero.
And then that happens!
That's America's housing market.
Thank you. - Fucking A Jared!
- 谢谢 - 你说得好棒
Shut your fucking mouth!
He's playing us, he's got too much skin in the game, and he's dumping his position.
他在玩我们 他陷得太深了 拉人垫背来脱身
What if he's right?
You want him to be right! -Yes, I do!
- 你当然希望他说的是真的 - 我是希望
The banks have given us twenty-five percent interest rates on credit cards.
They have screwed us on student-loans, so we can never get out from under.
Then this guy, walks into my office and says:
"Those same banks got greedy, they lost track of the market"
And i can profit off of their stupidity
Fuck! Yeah! I want him to be right!
I mean, how come you don't hate this guy? He's everything you taught us not to trust!
You can't hate him! He is so transparent in his self-interest that i kinda respect him.
我恨不起来 他这么把自己的利益摆到台面上 我倒挺尊敬他
Would i buy a car from him?... No!
Is he right about the mortgage market? Let's find out. Let's find out!
但是他说的房贷市场情况是否属实 咱们自己去调查看看 去调查
Look... It's two very simple questions:
Is there a housing bubble? And if there is... how exposed are the banks?
房地产有没有泡沫 如果有 银行了解多少
Let's get on this quickly too, because if he is right...
Every loser with a couple million bucks in a fund is gonna be jumping on us.
J.P. Morgan-Chase, J.P. Morgan-Chase.
OK.. Don't!...Stop Saying J.P. Morgan-Chase!
I got a good feeling about this
Just a meeting though, you know...It's just a meeting!
People have meetings all the time... You know!
People drink their coffee, they have a meeting...
Brownfield Funds? - Yes! yes!
- 棕地基金 - 我们在这儿
Hello, Hey! Chris... I 'm on Ted's Desk.
I'm Charlie, I'm Charlie Geller, I'm Jamie, Jamie Shipley.. Hi!
我叫查理 查理·盖勒 我叫杰米 杰米·希普利
We're so excited to get setup on your trading platform!
Cool! Here, eh.. have a seat a second.
So I... Ted did ask ehm.. to do us some meeting in front.
but I eh... I couldn't find any marketing material on you guys..
Oh... we just moved here from Boulder.
Oh, can we see some of your offering documents?
Well Brownfield has it own... money...
It's our money... Yeah.
Well can you tell us how much you manage?
Of course! We're doing 30 million right now.... eh...
But we started four years ago, with a hundred-ten thousand.
Wow! -So as you can see,
- 厉害啊 - 所以你看
that's pretty phenomenal returns.
We wanna get an ISDA-agreement with J.P. Morgan,
So we can deal in long-term options.
-That's really cool! Yeah!
- 想法很好嘛 - 是啊
But eh.. you guys are under the capital requirements for an ISDA.
Er.. How much eh...
One billion four-hundred-seventy millions
This makes us look bad doesn't it?
That we didn't know what the capital requirements were.
Keep up those returns
And give us a call way down the line you know?
OK, of course! Thanks Chris!
Have a good one guys! -Thank you Chris!
- 祝你们好运 - 谢谢
Who the fuck schedules a meeting at 4:50 in the afternoon?
Dude, B of A and Bear didn't even return our calls
and even fucking Wachovia blew us off! - I know man!
- 连美联银行这种大众货也不屌我们 - 是啊
Here's the prospectuses of all the other losers who didn't make it past the lobby.
I don't think i can do this anymore..
Yo, I'm young yet, i can still do something with my life!
伙计 我还年轻 还能干点正事儿
I miss Colorado anyway. The weed's better!
Gentleman... i need you to leave!
Yep, Yeah we're going, Let's go!
好 我们马上走 咱们走
Look at this, Look at this!
this guy says that the housing market is a giant bubble!
OK, so this part isn't totally accurate.
Now, we didn't find Jared Vennett's housing bubble pitch in a lobby of a bank that rejected us.
Truth is... ehm.. A friend had told Charlie about it
And I read about it, in Grant¡¯s Interest Rate Observer
This is..... crazy stuff!
Here, they're saying that there's 10-to-1 returns,
on Credit Default Swaps for mortgage backed securities
and the whole housing market is about to collapse.
For Jamie and Charlie, the housing market doomsday prediction was music to their ears!
bgm:《Lithium》by Polyphonic Spree
They had started working out of Jamie's garage,
with a 110 thousand Jamie had saved taking sailboats up and down the east-coast.
Our investment-strategy was simple.
People hate to think about bad things happening so they always underestimate their likelihood.
Their strategy simple and brilliant.
Jamie and Charlie found: Markets will sell options very cheaply on things they think will never happen.
他俩发现 市场会低价贩卖 认为不可能发生的事情的期权
So, when they were wrong, they were wrong small. But when they were right.......
They were right big! - Boooooom!
- 就能赚很多 -赚翻了
Within a few years they had turned a 110 grand into 30 million
Then it was time to go to New York City, And so far..... It wasn't going very well
So what if it does seem interesting?
Nope, no bank will give us our ISDA.
We're dead in the water...
These kind of trades are totally out of the question!
-We gotta call Ben!
Ben Ricker was a former trader in Singapore for Chase.
Quit the whole game in disgust!
He just happened to be Jamie's neighbor when they were in Colorado
They met, walking dogs....
But Ben was dark...
He didn't just think the whole system would fail
He thought the whole world was going down!
This salad's .... Oh.. hmmm good!
You know, every one of these vegetables is fresh from my garden
You guys should start your own garden!
What you gotta do is get your soil off petrol chemicals,
Use wood-ash and urine, help destroy the soil, creates mononitrate,
Seeds are gonna be the new currency!
And not those Frankenseeds from Monsanto, I'm talking about good healthy organic seeds.
Make yourself a garden, learn to live off the land! - A fucking lunatic!
- 自己种菜 自给自足 - 这有点精神过敏了吧
Ben had real experience in a big bank,
Jamie and Charlie, never even been in a Manhattan bank bathroom!
But Ben was done with the banking world, he was very clear!
Do you realize that? -Alright, let's crunch some numbers,
- 这点你想到了吗 - 咱们还是算清楚吧
Then maybe we'll talk about calling Ben - I don't wanna crunch the numbers,
- 然后再打电话给本 - 我不想算来算去
When haven't we crunched the numbers? -Seriously guys!
- 每次咱们都是算了再决定的 - 你们两个
-I need you out of here Of course, Yes Mam!
- 赶快离开 - 好的 麻烦您了
One second! -We're going, we're going!
- 马上就走 - 我们马上走
Oh god, i hate this! This is a total waste of time!
天哪 真是自找麻烦 这调研绝对是浪费时间
Come on! Would you relax!
there's a housing develpment about forty-five minutes outside of town.
We may as well to check that out first.
I hope there's some Cuban restaurants on the way there,
because i heard the Cuban food is amazing in Miami.
Please don't be Chipper in the face of me being miserable!
It really makes me hate you!
How is wanting to eat good food, being Chipper?
What's up man? What do you want?
Hello, I'm surveying mortgage owners who are over 90 days delinquent
I'm looking for a Harvey Humpsy
You want my landlord's dog?
Your landlord filled out his mortgage application using his dogs name?
Wait, has that asshole not been paying his mortgage?
Coz, I've been paying my rent!
Well, yeah he is over 90 days delinquent
Am i gonna have to leave?
My kids just got setup in this school man!
Ehm.. you should talk to your landlord about that
I'm sorry i don't have anymore information, but you ehm....
You have a great day!
Seriously... Is everything gonna be ok?
You should call... You should call him!
You should give him a call!
It's not my fault dude! I've been paying!
I think somebody just left
All they took was the TV.
They didn't even clean up the counter
It's like Chernobyl!
It's like a hundred houses, it can't be four people living here.
No, fuck that! -Shit!
- 我操 - 靠
bgm:《Barbarito Torres》by Lagrimas Negras
bgm:《Master of Puppets》by Metallica
He's been there for seven hours
What is he looking at? -I heard he had a breakdown!
- 他在看什么 - 我听说他崩溃了
He¡¯s letting the fund tank
Dr. Burry's office
No, he actually prefers that you e-mail him. Excuse me!
We have no confidence in your ability to identify macro-economic trends.
You flew here to tell me that? Why?
Every, E- E- Anyone can see there's a real-estate bubble
Actually no-one can see a bubble, that's what makes it a bubble
That's dumb, Lawrence.
There are always markers!
Quintupled since 2000 and the average take-home pay is flat, but ...
Home-prices are soaring, that means the homes are dead,not assets
房价暴涨 意味着房子不再用来住 而是投资品
So Mike Burry of San Jose, a guy who....
gets his haircut at Supercuts, and doesn't wear shoes,
knows more than Alan Greenspan and Hank Paulson....
I haven't talked to Hank, but yes he does.
That's cute, that's cute! Are you being sarcastic with us Mike?
Lawrence.... I don't know how to be sarcastic!
I don't know how to be funny
I don't know how to ... work people..
I just know how to read numbers!
How big is your short position right now?
eh, we pay ... eh... roughly...
Each year, which is surprising, because i was the first to do this trade
每年交 有点多 毕竟咱们开了先例
Watch, It will pay! I may have been early, but I'm not wrong!
等着吧 肯定能赚钱 我最先趟的道 但方向是对的
It's the same thing! It's the same thing Mike!
You're managing a fund of what? 555 million?
In six years, it will all be gone!
The second quarter of '07 is when the adjustable rates kick in!
The defaults will skyrocket!
How much is eligible for withdrawal before they're due? Say in the next two quarters.
在合约到期前 基金里有多少钱可以撤回 就算半年之内吧
If your investors panic
No-one will pull out, that would be suicide man
Down 17 percent for the year, but if they trust me, and they trust me!
今年虽然下跌了17% 但相信我就行了 而且他们一直相信我
No-one! -I've sent several e-mails to my investors
- 没人 - 我写了几封信给投资人了
Letting them know that the.. the....
It's the second quarter of '07 is when our housing position shows returns
and ehm... I've been very clear!
People will withdraw their money!
Why? You'd have to be so stupid!
If, if if the funds capital drops too much....
then the swaps contracts are voided
and then the banks....
get to keep all of it, all of it!
The contracts are voided?
The contracts are voided!?!
Give me my money back.
Michael, do you hear me? I want my money back!
麦克 听见了吗 我要退回我的钱
Give me my fucking money back!
The market is in an itsy-bitsy little gully right now
Like everybody said: "OK, that was crazy, let's just all calm down!"
I sold that house for 350, the year it was built.
two years later... 480, then 585, maybe eighteen months ago.
两年以后 就值48万 然后58万5 这是一年半以前的价格
This couple bought it for 650 last year!
He'd let it go for that....high jump
It will break his heart, but he'll let it go
Why is he selling?
Neither one is working right now
Marlene, you'd say they're motivated, right?
As motivated as one can be in this neighborhood.
This house on the left, I'd say they're properly motivated.
Wow! A lot of people seem very motivated.
It's just a gully that's all. Just nerves
So... where do we stand?
I need to talk to my wife
ehm.. This market won't last!
Actually, can i talk to a mortgage broker? Anybody you recommend? Anybody you like?
其实 能给我介绍个房贷经纪人吗 你推荐的 不错的
Yes, yes, There's someone, absolutely!
Yeah, bitch better like me, sent her ass to Cabo!
So is Morgan Stanley recruiting us? Is that..
No, eh no. The bank owns our hedge-fund
We're not really a part of it, we invest in financial service companies.
We're trying to understand the residential mortgage business.
How many loans do you write each month?
I don't know, about 60.
What was it four years ago?
Ten.... but maybe fifteen.
I was a bartender, now i own a boat!
So, how many of these are eh.. adjustable rate mortgages?
这里面有多少是可调利率的房贷 （前几年低利率 然后调高）
Yeah, I'd say about ninety percent
The bonuses on those skyrocketed a few years ago
Adjustables are bread and honey
So, do applicants ever get rejected?
Look if they get rejected I suck at my job!
Even if they have no money?
Well, my firm offers a NINJA loan.
No Income No Job Application, I just leave the income-section blank if i want.
Corporate doesn't care.
- These people just want homes, and they go with the flow. - Good for you.
- 大伙想要房 公司顺应民意呗 - 你当然愿意
Your companies don't verify?
If I write a loan on Friday afternoon,
Big bank is gonna buy it by Monday lunch.
Deal! Same here!
Could you hold on a second? -Yeah
- 你们能等会吗 - 行啊
I don't get it... Why are they confessing?
They're not confessing.... They're bragging!
Do people have any idea what they are buying?
I focus on immigrants!
Once they find out they're getting homeless.. They'll sign where you tell em to sign.
They don't ask questions, don't understand the rates.
And you targeting on immigrants too?
Their credit isn't actually bad enough for him.
Look I'm a yield guy
I make two thousand on a fixed rate prime
But i CAN make ten thousand on a sub-prime adjustable
Trust me, I'm not driving that 7-series without strippers
说真的 没有脱衣舞女郎的帮忙 我也开不上宝马7系
No-one on the pole has good credit, and they're all cash-rich.
I think I read Warren Buffett said something like that.
What? Who's Warren Buffett?
OK, So, strippers.... like exotic dancers...
Strippers? -Yeah, Hmmmm.
- 脱衣舞女郎 - 对
Can you introduce us? Yes!
- 能帮我们介绍个吗 - 当然行
I always get option-pay adjustable. I'm a private contractor.
Can't hear you, I'm sorry!
I always get option to pay adjustable, I'm a private contractor, i need the flexibility.
我一直选还贷方式多的那种可调房贷 我自己干 需要点灵活性
And you tell the mortgage company what you do?
I write: Therapist
You can touch me! -Always?
- 你可以摸我 - 一直
No, no, no you say you always do adjustables
不不不 误会了 你说你一直选可调利息房贷
And you have more than one loan on a property?
At least down here -I'm sorry what?
- 至少我们这儿这样 - 我没听明白
Everybody does! At least down here
That way you'll only put down like five percent
Well prices have leveled off though, right?
Yeah, it's a gully
Would you mind not moving anymore? I'll still pay you!
Sorry... We're not alone.
OK, look.. If home-prices don't go up,
You are not going to be able to refinance
And you're going to be stuck paying
whatever your monthly payment is once it jumps up, whenever your teaser rate expires
Your monthly's could go up two- to three hundred percent!
James says i can always refinance!
Well... He's ... A liar.
Actually in this particular case, James probably is wrong.
200% Two-hundred percent?
What do you mean? We're talking about two loans on one house right?
Hey, there's a bubble!
Trust me. Call Vennett,
Buy 50 million in swaps on the MBS
What do we got? Garabaldi IV, Triple B!
买哪个 Garabaldi 4 3B评级
Mark, are you sure?
Yeah, yeah! It's time to call bullshit!
Every fucking thing!
重新贷款:房价上涨 借房贷的人通过重新贷款 可获得最新的更低利息房贷 代价是延迟还清
银行可以把房贷当作"未来收款权"卖给投资人 所以银行有动力重新贷款 这样可以当新的再卖一次
银行的分期还贷计划 一般前期是优先还利息所以重新贷款后 原放贷银行并不吃亏
Is this America's angriest hedge-fund?
Hi listen, I got one last question for you
How are you fucking us?
There's a nice way to say that Vinnie...
We'll buy your swaps, but only if you say how you're fucking us.
I'm not fucking you Vinnie, I'm kissing you
我不想蹂躏你 文尼 我想要亲吻你
I'm looking deep into your eyes as i make love to you Vinnie.
I'm handing you the deal of the century on a fucking platter!
What do I get out of it?
Easy..I got a 20 million a month negative carry
I got bosses trying to pull the plug, because they're thinking I'm out of my fucking mind
We make this trade, those problems aren't so big anymore
And sure... Swaps are a dark market so...
I set the price, whatever price i want.
And when you come for the payday, I'm gonna rip your eyes out
I'm gonna make a fortune
But the good news is Vinnie, you're not gonna care
Cause you're going to make so much fucking money!
That's what I get out of it
Wanna know what you get out of it?
You get the ice-cream, the hot-fudge, the banana and the nuts!
你现在先拿到冰淇淋 热巧克力 香蕉和坚果配料
Right now I get the sprinkles
And yeah.... if this goes through...
I get the cherry.
But you get the sundae Vinnie
You get the sundae!
Alright, I'll buy that.
So what do you say?
Want me to make you a market?
We'll take 50 million
Garabaldi 4 3B评级
Sharpen your pencils, I'll get the paperwork ready
Aahhh... Fuck you too!
He has so many numbers, and i always forget,
Which one he prefers, cause he's very specific! -Just pick the first one
- 应该打哪个电话 他明确和我说过 - 就先选第一个吧
I don't know if it's the first one -Just try it!
- 不知道对不对 - 试试吧
Hey Ben it's Jamie!
Jamie, you know you're not supposed to use this line.
OK, let's try number two out of fourteen.
Ben, why do you do that man? You're a retired trader, ok..
本 你这不是自找麻烦吗 你都退休了好吧
No-one is listening to your calls! -The NSA has a 52 billion dollar budget
- 没人监听你电话 - 国安局有520亿的预算
and the ability to monitor tens of millions calls a second, you think they're not using it?
OK, I promise i will refrain from saying,
Ben Ricker and dirty bomb in the same sentence
Jesus! -I'm sorry dude!
- 我的天 - 真受不了
Did you get a chance to look at what we sent you Ben?
It's Charlie.... I'm here too!
Hi Charlie, Yeah I did, Hold on!
查理 你好 我看了 稍等
Ben, you still there?
I'll be honest gentlemen
you scared the shit out of me!
That's a good thing right? That means that this Vennett guy is not wrong!
Tell me more about these CDO's
Yeah yeah, ehm, OK Vennett mentioned the CDO's, but actually,
好的 杰瑞德只是提到了CDO (担保债务凭证 再打包的房贷证券)
We took a look and they're way worse then even he realizes -These things don't even make sense Ben.
- 我俩实际看了 情况比他想的还糟 - 数据离谱的像假的一样
We can't even model them -It's a hundred times bigger than the MBS
- 连预测模型都用不了 - 打包的CDO比房贷证券规模还要大100倍
and ninety percent AAA-rating?
Yes, over ninety percent - Incredible!
- 是啊 超过90% - 干的漂亮
Yeah, I took a good hard look at the CDO's you want to short.
They're brilliant! Worthless, total crap!
Jamie, very good!
What can i say.. I, I'm, I'm, good at finding shit!
So Ben, we shorted the BB's and the BBB's, and the risk is relatively low,
本 我们打算做空2B和3B级别的 风险也相对小一些
Pay-up is like 25-to-1
OK, so why are you calling me? I don't do this anymore!
We need you to help us get the ISDA.
If we get a hunting license, we can short this crap
We know you hate Wall-street, we're not asking you to do the trading
We're simply asking you to...
To get a seat at the fucking table
It's a pretty ugly table guys
Look Ben, the system fucked up in a big, big way here, OK?
And somehow... we , eh.. know before anyone else.
You know, this is a once in a lifetime deal!
OK, I'll call Deutsche Bank
Oh and Bear, what about Bear? They have some apprehensible product!
-OK, Bear will trade with anybody!
bgm:《Feel Good Inc》by Gorillaz
City's breakin' down on a camel's back
They just have to go 'cos they don't know whack
So all you fill the streets it's appealing to see
You won't get out the county, 'cos you're bad and free
You've got a new horizon it's ephemeral style
A melancholy town where we never smile
And all I wanna hear is the message beep
I'll see if i can push it through
And oh, thank Jared for us.
My dreams, they gotta catch me, 'cos I don't get sleep, no
Hi, it's Mark, I need to talk to Vinnie right now!
是我 马克 现在就把电话转给文尼
we just asking you to explain to us.. we need to know why
just how it is that you are fucking us, because what we are seeing here is..
Morgan Stanley building fast!
Are we hooked up at the same computer-screens? -Can we talk to one person please?
OK, yeah. -What do you mean, you're in the tower?
Vinnie, are you there?
Mark, are you there? Hello? -Yeah, Yeah, Did you hear?
- 马克 我能听见 - 你听说了吗
Mortgages defaults have gone through the roof!
Anybody jumping off the building yet?
Why would they? Sub-Prime mortgages are up
What? -Vennett wants 1.9 million more in collateral by-close
- 怎么可能 - 杰瑞德让我们今天再投入190万的抵押
Vennett's asking us to post collateral
What the hell is going on?
We don't know, but Deutsche is on the phone demanding payment
Call Vennett, call that little shit! -Call Vennett!
- 把杰瑞德给我叫过来 这小畜生 - 给杰瑞德打电话
Tell him to get his ass down here
So, sub-prime loans go bad,
but sub-rime bonds, which are made up of sub-prime loans, are more valuable?
I know. They want another 1.9 million by market close
What about the ratings-agencies? Moody's, S&P? Are they downgrading the CDO's or mortgage bonds
信用评级机构呢 穆迪公司 标准普尔 他们调低了CDO或房贷证券的评级吗
Where are the ratings of this? -They're the fucking same!
- 现在评级什么样 - 还是原封不动
Nope, They're all still AAA!
Are you fucking kidding me? Those fuckers, those motherfuckers!
他妈的在逗我 这帮混蛋 不要脸的
They go public and all the care about is their bottom-line and their shit!
Mark, that's not all...
The Morgan Stanley risk-guys are here -They called in Kathy Tao
I'm trying to convince her to make her sell us swaps
Apparently eh, tying up securing some insurance payments
So, a housing Armageddon is not prudent investing.
What did Kathy say?
Nothing yet, she keeps asking if this is one of your crusades
OK, I want you to walk back in there and very calmly, very politely
明白了 你走过去 语气平静 非常礼貌的
Tell the risk-assessors to fuck off!
And then meet me over at Standard & Poors, we're gonna talk to Georgia
Get that fuck Jared Vennett I want to bash his fucking head in
I spoke with Mark Baum
He says: to fuck off!
I don't see a damn thing.
Aaah, my eye-doctor is always busy
I end up taking any appointment they'll give me and then the whole morning gets shot to hell!
How can Standard & Poors help you?
Well, we don't understand why the ratings-agencies haven't downgraded sub-prime bonds
我们想弄明白 为什么评级机构 不下调次级贷证券的评级
since the underlying loans are clearly deteriorating
Well, the delinquency-rates do have people worried, but they're actually within our models
You're convinced the underlying mortgages in these bonds are solid loans?
That is our opinion yeah. -Oh crack the tape!
- 这是我们的观点 - 打开天窗说亮话
Have you looked at the loan-level data?
What you think we do here all day? They're giving these loans to anyone with a credit-score and a pulse
- 你以为我们整天在干啥 - 现在只要有信用分 就肯定能拿到房贷
Excuse me sir, what do you think we do here all day?
Not sure, I guess that's why we're here.
What I don't understand
We can't re-recheck and then check again!
If these mortgage-bonds are so stable, so solid
you should check your friend
Have you ever refused to rate?
that's delusional! -We stand behind it
- 做你的梦吧 - 我们有理由这么评级
Have you ever refused to rate any of these bonds upper-tranches AAA?
Can we see the paperwork on those?
Oooh, I'm under no obligation to share that information with you, whoever you might be.
Just answer the question Georgia, can you name one time in the past year?
Where you checked the tape and you didn't give the banks the AAA-percentage they wanted?
If we don't give them the ratings, they'll go to Moody's right down the block.
If we don't work with them they will go to our competitors
Not our fault, simply the way the world works.
Holy shit! -Ah yes, now you see it!
- 我靠 - 明白了吧
And I never said that!
You're selling ratings for fee's
You could afford to make less, make less.
Nobody said that!
And it is not my decision, I have a boss.
Are you kidding me? -No I am not kidding you!
- 你在逗我 - 我没空跟你开玩笑
Is that the angle you're taking?
So now anybody who has a boss,
Can't be held responsible for doing shitty and illegal things! -What are you? Four?
No, eh, eh, I am not four!
Mister Baum, I am not, no!
And I wonder, I wonder, what your incentives might be.
Is it maybe in your best interest to have the ratings changed? Is it, perhaps?
How many credit default swaps do you own?
Doesn't make me wrong
just makes you a hypocrite!
bgm:《District Divided》by Darkest Hour
Mortgage-delinquencies went up and the CDO's got more valuable, unbelievable!
房贷断供 房贷证券却更值钱了 真见鬼了
We know, it's completely backwards!
I just called an old friend at Bear he didn't even know what a CDO is.
Yeah, I just had to wire Bear and Deutsche seventy thousand dollars
It's like two plus two equals...
You bought into a rigged game
We lose everything.. -I'm gonna have to move back in with my mom!
Well, alright i got a colon in a couple of mins
Wait a minute, hold on! Ben!
Either the banks are clueless and they don't know how to value these CDO's or...
they're suck crooks that... the CDO's are worth shit, and they're hiding it!
I think we should buy more swaps!
- What? -Suck it up and pay up fellas we made a deal
- 你说啥 - 别废话 合同上白纸黑字写得清楚
Are you fucking kidding me? you come in here you fuck up -Are you fucking seriously?
No, no, no! -Yeah!
- 不不不 - 行
Seriously, colonic once a year!
Ass! -You got a matching little butler-boy you butt-fuck!
Think so yeah -God i pulled a muscle in my back from yelling
- 完了… - 刚才大声骂 我都闪腰了
Mortgage defaults have done nothing but go up!
Yet you quote us a higher price on the bonds
Please explain that to me! There's no way that makes sense!
There's no way you're marketing these swaps appropriately!
I mean, why shouldn't we back out of this trade right now?
Didn't I say, that when we made this deal, that the rating-agencies, the SEC
我说没说过 咱们谈成买卖的时候 评级机构 美国证券交易委员会
and the big banks were clueless! Didn't I say that?
Didn't I say it? -Yes you did, you did!
- 说过没有 - 有说过的 有说过的
now their foot's on fire and they think their steak is done, and you're surprised?
他们脚都开始着火了 心里却想着牛排应该烤熟了 你还觉得奇怪
That's not stupidity... that's fraud!
Tell me the difference between stupid and illegal and I'll have my wife's brother arrested.
That was funny! -I guess you just don't realize how clueless the system really is!
- 挺好笑的 - 你们还是没弄明白整个系统有多蠢
Yes, there's some shady shit going down!
but trust me, it's fueled by stupidity!
Look at yourselves!
You know you passed yourselves off as cynical people but....
You still have some faith in the system don't you?
Well, except for Vinnie!
No way! -Look!
- 不行 - 听我说
Either we're right, or we're wrong in a giant, giant way!
And if we're wrong then we gotta find someone to help us get out of this trade
I'm not feeling remotely confident that we're right
And, and... If we're wrong
Who's gonna tell us? Who understands this stuff? It makes no sense!
谁来告诉我们 有谁懂 没人懂
I think we need to go to Vegas!
What's in Vegas? -Vegas!
- 那儿有什么 - 去哪儿干啥
What the hell is in Las Vegas?
The American Securitization Forum is there next week
Every bond and CDO-salesman, sub-prime lender and swap-trader is gonna be there
每个证券 CDO 次级贷 倒卖交换的交易员都会去
Your bet is against their money,
it's about time you find out just how dumb that money really is
God no, I hate Vegas!
I hear the food has gotten really good in Vegas, they have a Nobu now
could you fucking stop!
bgm:《The Phantom of the Opera》by Andrew Webber
... in a sense? -If the bond is "rich", it is...?
that just means it's overpriced
I can't sleep on a plane so I did my homework -OK, let's focus!
- 飞机上睡不着我就自己准备了一下 - 咱们集中精神
What's our goal?
Figure out if this is a deal of a lifetime or...
everyone knows here something we don't and we're gonna get royally screwed
Right, remember that when you meet with guys from Bear!
I'll set you up with a face-to-face
Awesome, where is that?
Holy shit! Five years ago Securitization was a loser-convention
a hundred, maybe two-hundred people would show
500 billion dollars a year later you get this!
There's a lot of smug-looking people in here huh!?
It looks like someone just hit a pinata that was filled with white people who suck at golf
I mean, who are all these clown? -Ah come on, I think it looks fun!
- 都从哪儿冒出来的 - 别抱怨了 肯定很好玩
Charlie, Vennett says these are the people we're betting against.
Yeah, here we go Chris on my left, Chris, on my left!
咱们过去 克里斯 到我左边去 别挡道
Gentlemen! -When do we get a chance to face-time with some of these lovely folks?
- 大家好 - 什么时候能见到你说的那些爱心天使
Chris, give em the key cards!
Do you even know which key-cords you're giving out?
First of all, how was your travel? -Uneventful?
- 先生们路上还顺利吗 - 没什么事儿
Uneventful! -OK, I've been here for six hours!
- 没事 - 我来了6小时了
I've already been to the Gym, I had two poached eggs, and I played blackjack with Harry Dean Stanton
我已经锻炼完 吃了两个荷包蛋 还和演员斯坦顿一起打牌
Thank you for your diary!
Face-time! I'd like some face-time! -Just remember, we're here just to gather information!
- 我想找人见面聊 - 提醒你们记住 我们是来收集信息的
We're gathering information, we're not advertising our short-position!
Right? We don't want to spook anybody! Can we do that?
You got a big mouth, and you like to run it
Can you just keep it shut for a few days? -OK, OK!
- 这几天能不能收敛一点 - 好吧 好吧
Yeah, don't worry, we'll play nice!
Ladies and gentlemen!
Profits are strong!
and the mortgage continues to be the bedrock on which this economy is built.
Yes, we had to take some losses in our sub-prime department last year,
But those losses, will be contained at only five percent!
In our residential sector...
Mark, it's not a Q&A!
our roll out of those variable rate-packages were gobbled up by the
I have a question please!
Sir, the Q&A is after my statement, but you know what, you seem anxious!
先生 本来提问环节是在我陈述之后 但看你这么着急
How can I help you? -How are you? Fine, thank you!
- 现在就问吧 你好啊 - 你好 谢谢
that is it a possibility, or a probability
that sub-prime losses stop at five percent?
I would say it is a very strong probability, indeed!
So, ehm, back to the residential sector,
when we rolled out the new variable rates package -Excuse me!
- 我们推出可调利率… - 我还没问完
There is a zero percent chance
that your sub-prime losses will stop at five percent!
I have to take this -He must be from Bank of America!
- 我得接这个电话了 - 你一定来自眼红我们的美国银行吧
No, I'm really not doing anything right now!
as I was saying, our residential sector -uh huh, and how are the kids?
- 我正说到住宅部分 - 孩子们都还好吗
Consumers reacted to our packages
Mark Baum really did that! when we were in Vegas he did that!
He said that... he took the call,
Now you see what i had to deal with!
This Uzi is fucking awesome!
If I can get this CDO-machine to run for another two years
and then, I'm rich as fuck and I got my house in Aspen!
But do you have any concerns about the performance of the underlying securitizations?
It's easy to see that delinquencies,
eh, default-rates are on the rise right now!
Could you please stop being such a buzz-kill dude!
We didn't bring you out here to talk about work bro!
Why'd you bring us out here?
Because we need to be able to expense the ammo to a client!
We're gonna shoot some terrorists, watch out boys!
These guys are morons! -Fucking tool!
- 这是一群白痴 - 真是个棒槌
Boom, yeah man BOOM!
We ought to be buying every swap we can get our hands on! -Just hold on okay, hold on!
- 我们所有余钱都应该买互换 - 先别急 别急
My brother's ex-girlfriend works for the SEC, she just told me she's in town, okay!?
我哥哥的前女友在证券交易委员会工作 她说她也在城里 我去聊聊
So if we're missing something, maybe she can tell me, give me some insight.
In the mean-time, you go to the main floor to buy some more swaps
Well actually, we're about to invest in housing bonds.
I was just wondering if the SEC is worried about them at all
I know you're not allowed to tell me specifics, but, just generally.
Ow, we don't investigate mortgage bonds
Truth is, since we had our budgets cut, we don't investigate much!
实际上 我们预算减了以后 就不怎么调查了
Then why are you here? I thought.. -I'm not here for the SEC!
- 那你开会不是来调查的吗 - 我又不是以证交会员工身份过来的
I'm here on my own dime
I'm floating my resume to some big banks!
How's your brother by the way?
How are you floating your resume to big banks?
I mean, you're supposed to be the ones policing the big banks
There must be some kind of law against working for a financial institution
right after you've been working in financial regulation right?
Hey, come over here! What are you doing at Caesar's? -He's a Goldman
- 快过来 你怎么也来凯撒宫了 - 他在高盛工作
We can do BBB-level swaps at 500 basis points, maybe!
You're pricing the swaps, like the bond is gonna collapse
Even though the bond-value is going up? Really?
Exciting times! -What the hell is going on?!
- 这是变革的年代 - 搞不懂究竟是怎么回事啊
Lewis, Can you come early tomorrow, please?
I need to unload the AIG and Countrywide Freddie Mac positions
我得减持美国国际集团 国家银行 联邦住房抵押贷款公司
so we can afford the premiums on the
core mortgage-shorts on the swaps
No problem Dr. Burry
If the investors withdraw, what's gonna happen here?
Honestly I don't know!
the bonds aren't going down!
That we are in a completely fraudulent system.
Or... you're, you're wrong.
It's possible, I just don't know how!
someone's wrong, they never..
they never... Know how!
See you in the morning! -Yeah.
- 早上见吧 - 好
Even Bear up their prices!
they keep calling us Brown Hole
you just don't have the money or the reputation, don't take it personal!
你们没钱没名声 他们瞧不起也正常 别往心里去
I don't think i have the strip-club in me tonight I'm just gonna get some drinks around.
Watch some Pay-per-view book us some flights out for the morning.
d- d- deal, we need a deal, right, a deal.
Uhm, we need a deal we can afford, we need a deal they're not gonna refuse!
So... What can we do? We can....
The AA-tranches, What if we bet against the AA-tranches?
Who's not gonna take that bet?
We know that they say they're ninety-five percent AAA-rated
But in reality, they're more like twenty-five percent, some of them are zero percent!
We also know that if the bottom-tranches fail at over eight percent
The upper-tranches are affected and they go to zero.
I'll bet you right now, that those AA's are actually like B's!
I rarely ever say these words but i think Charlie is right!
is 200-to-1, but they're all taking the ratings of face value
They're charging penny's on the dollar to bet against Double-A's
Just when i start thinking you guys are clowns!
No-one on the planet is betting against Double-A's
The banks will think we're either high, or having a stroke
And they'll take every dime we have to offer!
This is what we did, that no-one else thought of.
Not even Baum or Berry thought to short the Double-A's
Little Brown Hole Capital
So we're interesting in shorting some of the AA-tranches of CDO's
Come on guys, what's the angle?
I've got no angle, we're new to this, we're just so hyped!
我们没其他意思 新手嘛 很想拿这个试手
We wanna do fifteen million in swaps on the Double-A tranche
I don't understand!
You can buy as much Double-A tranches as you want!
Forty million against the Double-A
Brother, I would sell you as much as you want!
I understand perfectly Bob! Want the deal?
That's cool, that's alright with me!
don't do that! Stop, Stop!
Stop that! -Charlie! Wooooh!
Do you have any idea what you just did?
Come on, we just made the deal of our lifetime, we should celebrate!
You just bet against the American economy!
Fuck yeah we did! -Yeah!
Which means! Fuck yeah! OH!
- 这意味着 - 太棒了
Which means... If we're right....
If we're right, people lose homes!
People lose retirement savings, people lose pensions!
You know what i hate about fucking banking! It reduces people to numbers!
Here's a number! Every one percent unemployment goes up,
40 thousand people die! Did you know that?!
Did you know that? -No, I didn't know that!
- 知不知道 - 不 我们不了解
We were just excited!
Just don't fucking dance!
Alright! -Where are you going?
Whoah, I just got really scared!
First of all, great show today!
Thank you! -Your big mouth was a revelation!
- 谢谢 - 你嘴不严实还真是我出乎意料
You worried you, and your swaps were getting played?
Well, this is an opportunity for you to meet who you're betting against!
Try not to get too righteous and listen a little!
OK, Fine! Who is this guy?
A real solid-gold asshole!
I'm a CDO-manager
A CDO-manager? -Yup, at Harding Advisors
- 还有这个职位 - 在哈丁顾问公司就有
I didn't realize that there was anything to manage with CDO's
We select the securities that go into the CDO-portfolio and monitor the assets
I do most of Merrill-Lynch's CDO's
Do you represent the investors or Meryll-Lynch?
Meryll-Lynch isn't gonna send you any customer unless you put
Merrill-Lynch's bonds in your CDO....
Let's just assume Merrill and I have a...
we have a good relationship
You have a good relationship with Merrill-Lynch?
We've been doing business together
And so the CDO's..
are, are, are, of the highest quality
and the highest of value!
- 那是当然 - 那是当然…
Are you at all concerned about the rising default-rates?
I assume no risk for this produce myself Mark
So let me get this straight
The bank calls you up
They give you the bonds they wanna sell
They give you clients, they give you money to run your business,
Give you fat fee's for doing so
but you represent the investors?
But we're not in the Merrill-Lynch building!
OK, where are you? -We're in New Jersey!
- 那你在哪 - 我在新泽西
You're twenty minutes away!
Five, if you use the helicopter!
Your boss is about to explode!
No, he's too curious to explode!
Hold on, say that again!
CDO A, has parts of CDO B
And CDO B, has parts of CDO A and then they both get put inside CDO C.
Yeah and that one is called CDO square!
And then there's CDO's made up of the opposite sides of the bet you made with the swaps
We call them, synthetic CDO's
What did you just say? Synthetic CDO's? That is fucking crazy!
你说啥 合成CDO 真是乱套了
It's not! It's awesome!
His face is starting to boil He looks like the bad guy from DOOM
Alright, let's say...
You have a pool of 50 million in sub-prime loans
How much money could be out there betting on it
In your synthetic CDO's and swaps? right now! Tonight!
50 million.. hmm..
If the mortgage-bonds that Michael Burry discovered were the match...
How much bigger is the market for insuring mortgage bonds than for actual mortgages?
About twenty times!
If the mortgage bonds were the match...
Then the CDO's were the kerosene soaked rags.
Then the synthetic CDO was the atomic bomb
with a drunk president holding his finger over the button
It was at that moment in that dumb restaurant
with that stupid look on his face that Mark Baum realized
The whole world economy might collapse!
And i know what you're thinking!
What the fuck is a synthetic CDO?
塞勒博士 美国经济学会主席 芝加哥大学教授 行为决策研究所所长 改变了经济学家研究人类的方式“行为经济学”之父
Well, here's Dr. Thaler, father of behavioral economics, and Selena Gomez to explain!
Ok, so here's how a synthetic CDO works!
Let's say i bet ten million on a black jack hand.
Ten million, because this hand is to represent a single mortgage bond
Okay, Selena has a pretty good hand here!
showing eighteen, dealer showing seven That's a really good hand for Selena!
两张明牌18点 庄家7点 莎琳娜拿到了一手好牌
Good odds, In fact her chances of winning this hand
are eighty-seven percent
So, my odds are good
I'm on a winning streak
Everybody in this place wants to get in on the action
How could i lose right?
Now this is a classic error
In basketball it's called the Hot-Hand-Fallacy
A player makes a bunch of shots in a row
People are sure they're gonna make the next one
People think, whatever is happening now
Is gonna continue to happen into the future!
During the real-estate boom
Markets were going up and up!
and people thought they would never go down!
People who are watching and think that I won't lose will make a side-bet
旁观的人心想 赌边注的话 也不会输
Now this, is the first synthetic CDO
I love Selena Gomez!
I'll bet you fifteen million, she wins!
And I'll give you 3-to-1 odds!
Okay, I'll take that bet!
somebody else is gonna wanna make a bet on the outcome of their bet!
15 million she wins!
That will lead to synthetic CDO number two!
I bet you 200 million, that lady in the glasses, wins that bet!
She probably will win!
So i want great pay-off!
How about 20-to-1?
And this will go on and on, with more and more synthetic CDO's
And we can transform an original ten million dollar investment
Into billions of dollars
I actually feel pretty sick!
So I'm going to leave
You think I'm a parasite don't you mister Baum?
But apparently society values me,
In fact, Let's do this!
how much I'm worth.
You tell me how much you're worth!
You are an incredibly...
big piece of shit!
Short everything that guy has touched, I want half a billion more in swaps
Sure about that? The collateral calls could bankrupt you!
Where are you going?
I am going to try to find moral redemption at the roulette table
Things are worse than I thought
I honestly think the economy might collapse!
You've been saying that the system is broken for years Mark
Why are you so shocked?
It's more twisted, than i could have imagined!
You love to be the virtuous one
I'm a banker, I'm a part of it!
You always have Mark!
Like you're untainted -It changed me, it changed me!
- 不想沾染脏东西 - 我也被改变了 我也被改变了
who is not able to reach out to someone
He was in pain, my brother was in real pain!
There is no perfect way to help
Say it, it's scary
Trying to fix the world!
You're not a saint, saints don't live on Park Avenue!
That he was having bad thoughts.
Just feel the feelings, like the rest of us!
My first response...
Was, to offer him some money.
I offered him fucking money!
His face was so smashed!
bgm:《By Demons Be Driven》by Pantera
Michael? -Yes, Yes!
- 麦克 - 我在
Is everything Ok? -Yes honey!
- 你没事吧 - 没事 亲爱的
To all investors, as you may know,
Our agreement allows me, to take extraordinary measures
When markets aren't functioning properly
I currently have reason to believe
The mortgage-bond market is fraudulent
So, in order to protect investors from this fraudulent market
I've decided to restrict investor withdrawals
Until further notice.
Sincerely, Dr. Michael J. Burry
Oh my god dude, would you...
天哪 伙计 你能不能…
Please stop changing the channel
It's been driving me crazy! -Fine!
- 要把我逼疯了 - 好吧
Just put the business-news on please. Thank you!
And the S&P picked up three points
Mortgage Meltdown continues
sub-prime mortgage-lender New Century Financial
Once the industry-leader by the way, filed for bankruptcy
The company immediately, Ahem!
good time for my voice to go
Fired 3,200 workers
The manufacturing-index also fell off the month of march
A warning that the economic growth could slow
The institute of sub-prime assets also reported a rise of prices
I'm gonna call my mom!
Time, and time, and time again I've brought you back, Mark
We've know each-other for seventeen years
She 's got some lungs on her I'm impressed!
Can't help but enjoy it.
There's no fucking way, there's no fucking way, that the big banks are that stupid!
Kathy thinks it would be a good idea if we sold our shorts
And she said that Morgan-Stanley will buy them
I told her we're not selling shit!
Ah, if you need the.. ehm, Files from 2005
Mister Field's suit is very specific to files from the past year
Good, then get out! Say hi to Lawrence for me! and both do!
那出去吧 代我向劳伦斯问好 向他俩都问好
You can't call me back for a week?
I'm so sorry Mike!
Goldman had a systems failure i lost a ton of messages!
B of A said they had a power outage, And Morgan-Stanley said their server crashed!
Meh, I will, I will call it, improbable
Where do you have our position marked?
I think it's the same Mike
What? Can you explain that to me please?
H-H-H How can the value of an insurance-contract
Not be affected by the demise of the very thing it insures?
They're independent markets, They're not always correlated!
I know it sounds odd, but these are very complicated products!
They ARE correlated!
They're gonna lose their houses, They're gonna lose their jobs, They're gonna lose their p..
人们会没了房子 丢了工作 养老金…
Will you listen to me!
This is like.... The end of capitalism!
This is like the dark ages all-over again!
I don't want to talk to dad! Okay, I love you too, save your money!
我不想和我爸说话 我也爱你 把你们的钱保护好
She says I need to be on Xanax, and double my dose of Zoloft
I asked Bear-Stearns to price our shorts They tell me the CDO's still haven't moved
This is fucking insane!
You realize that? These people are crooks and they should be in prison!
Look at the ABX, you can see that the CDO's are worth zero!
So you know what they're doing,huh? -Yeah!
- You know what they're doing right? -Yeah!
- 你知道他们想干啥 对吗? - 没错
They're not loading them...
They're selling their dogshit CDO's
Then they go to another bank
And short the shit, while they fucking sold it! -Whoo ho ho, Let's go to the press man!
- 做空自己的狗屎 再吃进去 - 天哪 咱们可以去找媒体了
This is a massive story! Who wouldn't publish it?
shorting the ones they buy -I got it, I got it!
- …再做空自己买下的 - 我明白了 我明白了
I got it, I got it...
And what am I supposed to do?
Want me to write a piece called: "We're all fucked!"
Yes! That's a perfect title!
Right now, every bank in town is unloading these shit-bonds
under un-suspecting customers
and they won't devalue them until they get them off their books
This level of criminality is unprecedented even on fucking Wall-street!
This is me being honest here okay.
It took me years to build my relationships on Wall-street
No bank or ratings-agency
Is gonna confirm a story like this
just because it comes from two guys in a...
garage-band hedge-fund that thinks it's the apocalypse.
I thought you were for real Kathy You know, I have to say, I really did!
我还以为你是良心记者 真的 我一直都这么想
Yeah Jamie, you try being for real with a three-year old
杰米 你和我讲良心 我现在小孩3岁
and a wife getting her masters-degree
I'm not gonna burn my reputation on your wild hunch
Thanks for coming guys, totally fucking awesome to see you!
Yeah. I, Kathy I, I, I've always hated you
Because you were a prick in college and you are a prick today!
Thanks Charlie! Still living with your mom?
It's Mark Baum again. Call me!
Sub-prime bonds fell off a cliff
Rumor has it default-numbers are huge!
Who got the remittance data early? I bet it's Goldman
Nah, Fuck you very much!
Jared! It's chaos down here, where are we?
杰瑞德 我这儿一团乱麻 咱们情况怎么样
he wept for there are no more worlds to conquer
“他哭泣了 再也没能让我征服的地方了” （亚历山大大帝名言）
Nobody's buying CDO's and mortgage bonds anymore
And everybody wants swaps, swaps are now the most popular product on the street
That's good for us! -Yes, and no.
- 对我们是好消息吧 - 是也不是
I heard from somebody, who heard from somebody
No Alex. No..... Sorry!
不行 亚历克斯 这里我占了
Bennie Kreeger over at Morgan is taking up some heavy losses in the bond-department
Your shit might be taking on water
Time to get our life-jacket and get out.
I'm jacked to the tits!
Do you feel it? -No!
- 能体会到痛苦又兴奋的感觉吗 - 我可不想
What'd you hear Ted?
Everybody wants our swaps
Kathy's office is looking for you!
Singing a different tune now, aren't they?
No, no this isn't a joke -you gotta start unwinding...
- 我没开玩笑 - 你得开始脱身了
Dr. Burry? -Yah!
- 贝利博士 - 是我
Deeb Winston, Goldman Sachs
Listen, I've been reviewing your position
I wanted to discuss your marks, make sure they're fair!
Yeah, I, I, I thi, I think you mean.. That you've..
secured a net-short position yourselves, so you're free to mark my swaps accurately for once
Because it's now in your interest to do so.
Ehm... I'm not sure what you want me to say
I think you've already said it.
You tell Jeff at Goldman that I'm not transferring funds, this is bullshit!
你告诉高盛的杰夫 我绝对不会转移基金 太扯淡了
Okay, we'll talk later.
Thanks for coming so quickly Mark -Yeah
I know you've been hearing rumblings about some losses Morgan has suffered.
-Congratulations On what?
- 恭喜你 - 恭喜什么
Ehm.. -Having fun?
I just wanted you to know that ehm...
Yes, Morgan has suffered some losses, but our liquidity is strong,
And there's no cause for concern!
Would Bennie Kreeger be concerned?
Because word on the street is he took some pretty heavy losses
Kathy come on, we know each-other.. What's going on?
凯茜 别遮掩了 咱们都认识多少年了…
How..how..how bad is this?
Two years ago, Bennie Kreeger in Morgan's bond-department also started shorting sub-prime housing
在两年以前 摩根证券部门的克里格 也开始做空次级贷
Two billion in Triple-B's -Benny is smarter than i thought!
- 20亿做空3B级 - 本尼比我想的还要聪明啊
No, he's not smart at all!
The premiums on the swaps ate into his desks profit
To cover his Triple-B shorts,
He sold a lot of A- and Double-A swaps as protection, A lot!
He believed that there was no way, that they could be affected.
Tell me Morgan-Stanley doesn't hold the contracts on these swaps
All this time I've been trying to figure out whom I've been betting against.
And it's Morgan-Stanley
Which is me....
What's your exposure? Three billion?
Please don't tell me it's more than four!
I can't answer that!
Yes you can answer that, because...
I walk in here and people are crying in your hallway
You bring me in to tell me everything is fine, and everything is not fine!
What? What is happening?
Long exposure is...
Jesus Christ, are you fucking kidding me?! -You kept saying defaults over eight percent were impossible!
- 我的老天爷 你在开玩笑吧 - 你总是说断供率不可能超过8%的
-That there would be a million homeless Oh my god!
- 那样会有1百万人无家可归 - 我的天
Yeah, but we have nothing to do with Morgan-Stanley
Yeah... Just tell the bankruptcy-court
Morgan fails, all our accounts go on their balance sheet
摩根破产 我们所有的钱都会转到 他们的资产负债表上
That's just crazy!
Morgan makes a sucker's bet and we pay their fucking gambling debt?
Short the bank's stocks! -Wait..
Or we sell our swaps, when the market opens
We get our bonuses, our investors get their profit
We get... thirty cents on the dollar, Not bad!
We're three times that
Not if there's no market up to sell them in
Forget it, I'm not giving any lifeboats
Mark, if Morgan goes under, we end up with nothing!
马克 如果摩根垮了 到头来我们什么都没有了
I say, when we sell
Look I get that this is personal for you,
But we have a fiduciary responsibility -No, no we don't!
- 但是我们对投资人也要负责 - 我们不需要负责
Respons..? Nobody is acting responsible!
Fuck responsibility! Are you kidding me?
The assholes at the big banks, are gonna take..
You boys want menu's now? -We're talking!.. Please!
- 你们点菜吗 - 我们在说正经事…别打扰
We are going to wait, and we are going to wait
We are going to wait, until they feel the pain, until they start to bleed
That is what I want
Yeah, but what about our clients, they've been trusting us with their savings.
I say when we sell!
This isn't about you!
Hey, hey, HEY! I say when we sell!
Whatever you say Mark
Dude, did you hear the news?
Ok, so not only did two mortgage hedge-funds backed by Bear-Stearns go belly-up
but now, there's a class-action lawsuit against Bear
Let's go! Push, Push!
跟我做 用力 用力
So? What? Bear could really collapse here? -That's a risk we really shouldn't take!
- 那怎么了 贝尔会破产吗 - 我们不能冒这个险
But eighty percent of our swaps is Bear
We lose everything!
Hey Sir! -One second!
- 先生 - 马上就好
That's my opinion! -Aw, we bought these fucking things, and we have no clue how to sell them
- 这是我的看法 - 我们买了这东西 却不知道怎么卖
I know, we have to get Ben to do it!
I've been trying to call him, but he won't get back to me
No, he's on vacation with his wife's family! They're in England!
Guys? -Yeah, we're here, can you hear us?
- 你们好 - 我们在 你能听清吗
Guys?- We hear ya, Yeah!
I probably got cell-phone and WiFi-service
I'm trying to sell 200 million dollars worth of securities
I don't want to pressure you Ben, but if you don't pull this off, we lose everything!
我不想给你压力 但你搞不定的话 我们就全赔光了
Ok, let's see what Credit Suisse's appetite is.
This is Brownfield Fund, I'm wanting to unload my credit default swaps.
Alright, what've you got?
Twenty Double-A tranches of CDO's
Eh yes.. but these eh... these are pretty bad
Absolutely, they're complete shit!
What's your.. what's your? - Face-value is 205 million
- 你的… - 面值是2亿5百万
Alright, we could, we could go to forty
No, we want at least a hundred million
Who are you a drug-dealer or a banker?
Cause if you're a banker you can fuck right off!
I don't know if we can make a market, just give me your best price!
Yeah, Check! a hundred million worth, and aim higher!
I think we're far apart
Look if you don't want to deal, just hang up.
That's what I thought!
- 7千8百万 - 8千4百万
- 7千8百万 - 8千4百万
Looks like the collapse of the financial sector is imminent
Start to sell my position
Sure, I'll hold!
I took a rash of shit for two years. But...
I was right! And...
Everyone was wrong!
And yeah i got a bonus-cheque for it
It's a lot of money! I get it, I can feel you judging me.
I never said I was the hero of this story
How are we looking?
No, eighty million! -Ok, so eighty million!
- 是8千万 - 8千万成交了
Eighty million, eigthy million, that's good right?
8千万 8千万 这挺好的是吧
Eighty is great, eighty is great, thank you, thank you so much!
8千万很好 谢谢你 非常感谢
Most of them went to UBS
You're very lucky!
The largest bank in France froze it's customer's money-market accounts today
This thing is hitting Europe!
Greece and Iceland are finished
Spain is teetering
Are you serious? Fuck!
Ben call us when you get home!
But hey, before you go... I'm just wondering...
Why did you do this with us?
You didn't have to, and eh.. you know, thank you, but, eh....
You guys said you wanted to get rich! -Now you're rich!
As the housing-markets and banks continues to hemorrhage, only one of the big shorts refused to sell.
So it was beyond perfect, when he was asked to speak at a conference opposite Bruce Miller
Famous bullish investor
After he and Mark had their debate
Alan Greenspan, one of the architects of the whole crisis, was scheduled to speak
格林斯潘 整个金融危机的总设计师 还要继续讲话
Everyone in Mark's office showed up, even invited friends!
This... was the Ali versus Foreman of the financial world
Realists versus the fools
And if it seems almost too perfect... trust me!
Please... Give a generous welcome to...
Mister Bruce Miller.... and Mark Baum
Strap yourself in!
So as some of you may know, Bear-Stearns has just received a loan from J.P. Morgan
Of course we gonna have to wait to see how the markets react
But that should lay to rest any concerns about the bank self!
No, I take it, you have no plans to sell your two-hundred million in Bear stock
No, as a matter of fact, when we're done here, I'll probably go buy some more!
当然不 实际上等我们聊完 我还要再买进更多
For the opposing view... Mister Baum
I gotta stand for this
My firm's thesis is pretty simple
Wall-street took a good idea: Lewis Raneiri's mortgage-bonds
And turned it into an atomic bomb of fraud and stupidity
That's on it's way to decimating the world economy
How do you really feel?
I'm glad you still have a sense of humor! I wouldn't if I were you!
Now, Anyone who knows me, knows..
That I have no problem telling someone they're wrong.
It's a disaster, it just says here
But for the first time.. in my life.. -Holy fuck!
- 但这一辈子 我是头一次… - 我的天
It's not so enjoyable
We live in an era of fraud in America
Not just in banking, but in government
Food, even baseball
What bothers me...
Isn't that .. fraud is not nice
Or that fraud... is mean
It's that .. for fifteen thousand years
Fraud and short-sighted thinking have never ever worked
Not once, eventually -Jesus
- 一次都没有 - 天哪
You'll get caught -We're at thirty-seven
- 总会失败 - 已经降到37了
Things go south! -It's fucking plummeting man, it's fucking plummeting!
- 行情要下跌了 - 这哪是下跌 这是暴跌
When the hell did we forget all that?
I thought we were better than this, I really did
The fact that we're not, doesn't make me feel all-right and superior!
虽然我们不够明智 但是我也不觉得自己多么正义 多么骄傲
It makes me feel... Sad.
Everytime i fucking hit refresh it's dropping man -And hope it does goes down!
- 我每次刷新 股价都在掉 - 垮掉算了
And as fun as it is to watch..
Pompous dumb Wall-streeters be wildly wrong
And you are wrong sir!
I just know that at the end of the day
Average people are going to be the ones, that are going to have to pay for all of this.
Because they always, always do! -Thirty-two?
- 兴亡总是百姓遭殃 - 32点
Shit! It's thirty-two -Yeah it's fucking tanked man
- 真是32点 - 这是跌破的节奏
That's my two cents, thank you!
I'm gonna drop a deuce at Deutsche
Does our bull have a response?
Only that in the entire history of Wall-street,
No investment-bank has ever failed, unless caught in criminal activities.
So, yes! I stand by my Bear-Stearns optimism.
Mister Miller, I'm sorry! quick question!
米勒先生 打扰了 一个小问题
From the time you guys started talking, Bear-Stearns' stock is falling more than thirty-eight percent
Would you still buy more?
Of course i'd buy more, why not?
Jesus Christ! - Oh no! That concludes the first part of our presentation
- 天哪 - 糟了 - 我们第一部分的讨论就结束了
Up next, we have the legendary, former, chairman of the FED, Alan Greenspan!
下面我们有请 传奇的前美联储主席 格林斯潘
... employees of Lehmann Brothers today, -as the Wall-street giant's stock went to zero!
- …雷曼兄弟的员工… - 华尔街的大公司股票跌到零
the collapse of the venerable New York Bank
Follows a tumultuous few months of market volatility
and fear for the world economy...
I gotta see inside
I left my phone in the office, I threw my pass out already,
Do you mind if i take your pass? Borrow it? I don't give a shit anymore, you can do what you want!
- 能用你的吗 - 爱用就用 我才不管
Go directly to your transportation, do not talk to the press! -So that's it? After eighteen years!
- 直接上班车 别对媒体说话 - 18年了 我就落了这么个结果
Go directly to your transportation, do not talk to the press! -I just leave? That's just fucking great, I can talk to whomever the hell I want!
Do not talk to the press!
Go directly to your transportation, do not talk to the
Hey look, you want to get a bit tonight? There's this ehm...
This new Cuban place just opened at the Lower East Side, so I suppose we could..
Ah really? -Yeah!
- 是吗 - 是啊
Yeah and eh.. other people -That sounds nice!
- 也带上大伙吧 - 好主意
Yeah, I would like that, thank you very much! -Finally!
- 我很想去 谢谢你邀请我 - 总算打电话了
It's a bloodbath up here
Morgan's stock has lost half its value, it's down to 23,10
摩根股票贬值一半 跌到23 10
It's in a free-fall decline, so I wanted to talk to you about pulling their money
I mean... It's now or never Mark!
Mark, do you hear me?
Mailbox #1, You have fifteen messages.
Mike I can't seem to get a hold of you, could you please call me at your earliest convenience?
It's Jeff, I.. eh.. You're buying stocks?
The market is at an all-time low, this is crazy!
I met my wife on Match.com
My profile said that I'm a medical student with only one eye
An awkward social manner,
and 145 thousand dollars in student loans
You're just what I've been looking for!
She meant honest, so let me be honest...
The housing-crisis represents the greatest financial opportunity
Making money is not like i thought it would be.
This business... Kills the part of life that is essential! The part, that has nothing to do with business
For the past two years, my insides have felt, like they're eating themselves.
在过去两年 我内心感觉到 黑暗的东西在自我吞噬
All the people I respected,
won't talk to me anymore
Except through lawyers.
Want an authority to tell them how to value things, but they chose this authority
not based on facts or... results
They chose it because it seems authoritative...and familiar!
他们这样选 只是因为这些人看起来很权威 说出了他们想听的话
I'm not, and never have been.... familiar
So I've come to the solemn realization that I must close down the fund
Sincerely, Michael J. Burry MD.
This isn't how I pictured it
What do you think you'd find? -I don't know
- 你以为是什么样的 - 反正不是这样
Mark, are you there?
Paulson and Bernanke just left the White House.
There's going to be a bail-out
Well, they had to!
We paid for mortgages with collaterals -They knew!
- 我们用担保兑付房贷 - 这些人早就知道
Cash would have stopped coming out the ATM, they had to back-stop this
They knew the tax-payers would bail them out, they weren't stupid, they just didn't care!
这些银行家知道政府会用纳税人的钱保他们 他们不是愚蠢 他们只是不在乎
Yeah, 'cause they're fucking crooks!
But, at lest we're gonna see some of them go to jail.
We need to gonna have to break up the banks
The party is over! -I don't know, I don't know...
- 不可能再为所欲为 - 我不知道 我不知道
I have a feeling, that in a few years, people are gonna doing, what they always do when the economy tanks.
我总觉得 几年之内 人们还是会和以前经济危机一样
They will be blaming immigrants and poor people.
But Mark was wrong!
In the years that followed, hundreds of bankers and rating-agency's executives went to jail.
The SEC was completely overhauled
and congress had no choice, but to break up the big banks
and regulate the mortgage and derivative industries
Banks took the money the American people gave them
and used it to pay themselves huge bonuses
and lobby the congress to kill big reform
and then they blamed immigrants and poor people
and this time even teachers!
And when all was said and done, only one single banker went to jail
Kareem Serageldin from Credit Suisse
He hit a few billion in mortgage-bond losses
Something most of the big banks did on a good day during the crisis
Mark, can we sell now?
I mean the fund will almost make a billion dollars
You'll clear two-hundred mill Mark!
You know... once we sell..
We'll be just like the rest of them
No we're not, we're not the bad guys here!
we didn't defraud the American people and prey on their dreams of owning a home
Now we get to kick em in the teeth!
But we gotta close out our position, or it could be zero
I- I- It's now or never, Mark
机不可失 时不再来 马克
bgm:《When The Levee Breaks》by Led Zeppelin