在线市场能如何帮助,而不是伤害当地经济 Amane Dannouni: How online marketplaces can help local economies, not hurt them

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演员: Amane Dannouni


台词
In February 2013, my wife and I moved to Singapore.
2013 年 2 月, 我和妻子搬去了新加坡。
Exactly at the same time,
与此同时,
Uber has announced it started operations in the country.
Uber(优步)宣布 在新加坡开始运营。
Now, my wife and I agree on a lot of things,
我和我妻子在很多事情上 都保持一致的态度,
but using Uber was definitely not one of them.
但使用 Uber 绝不是其中之一。
While I was excited about the technology
我对这项科技感到兴奋不已,
and how maybe we don't need to own cars anymore,
认为它可能意味着 我们以后再也不用养私家车了,
she felt that every Uber car is here to steal jobs from taxi drivers.
她却认为每一辆在这儿的 Uber 都在从当地出租车司机手里抢工作。
And Sarah was not the only one.
莎拉(我妻子) 并不是唯一 一个这么想的人。
As the Ubers, Airbnbs and Amazons of the world --
当全世界的“在线市场” ——
what we call "online marketplaces" --
Uber (优步),Airbnb (爱彼迎), Amazon (亚马逊) 等
as they started expanding their presence,
开始拓展业务时,
we have heard, all of us, countless policymakers
我们所有人也能听到 无数的政策制定者
worried about how to deal with these new risks
都在担忧如何应对 它们带来的新风险:
of job destruction, lower wages and tax leakage.
对就业市场的打击, 工资缩水,和税收下降。
We've also heard company leaders
我们也听说过公司领导人
worried about aggressive competition from global platforms
担心这些环球平台带来的激烈竞争
eating up their local businesses.
会蚕食他们的当地企业。
And on the rational level, of course I understand.
从理性的角度讲,我当然能理解,
After all, this is basic supply and demand economics.
毕竟,这是经济学基本的 供需关系模型。
If, in any market, you dramatically increase supply,
如果你在任何一个市场 大幅增加供给量,
you should expect prices, profitability and growth to go down
那么市场价格、收益率 和经济增长对于现有参与者来说
for existing players.
就会相应下降。
But in my personal experience,
但以我个人的经验来看,
I've also seen the other side of the story.
我也见过与之截然相反的情况。
Where online marketplaces,
像印度尼西亚的 Gojek,
like Gojek in Indonesia or Jumia in Africa,
非洲的 Jumia 等在线市场,
have helped their business ecosystems and the communities around them.
实际上反而能帮助当地的 商业生态系统和周围的社区。
The positive side I have seen
我所见到的积极一面
demonstrated itself in a woman, a taxi driver in Egypt,
在一位女士身上体现了出来。 她是埃及的一位出租车司机。
that now had the opportunity to work
她现在可以有机会
without the harassment she faced in the taxi business.
在一个不会受到出租车行业 那样骚扰的环境下工作。
It demonstrated itself through a village in Kenya
这种好的方面同时也在肯尼亚 一个取得经济增长的村庄中
that got an economic boost,
得以体现,
because the nearby beautiful but completely unknown lake
因为当地附近的一个美丽 而又完全与世隔绝的湖泊
is now becoming a national ecotourism spot.
现在已经成为了一个 国家级生态旅游景点。
Online marketplaces will continue to grow.
在线市场未来还会持续发展。
And they will transform the way we shop,
并且它们将会变革我们购物、
the way we travel
旅行
and the way we transact with each other.
和与他人交往的模式。
So we really need to understand
所以我们现在需要弄清楚,
where is the truth between those two stories.
这两种故事,到底谁是真相。
Should we expect more of the bright side
我们应该期待好的一面会发生,
or more of the dark and worrying side?
还是觉得不好的、 引人忧虑的一面会发生?
And is there a way to get the first without getting the second?
有没有可能只有好的一面会发生?
I believe there is.
我相信这种可能是存在的。
As a strategy consultant, I study businesses for a living.
作为一名战略顾问, 我以研究商业模式谋生。
And as a mathematician at heart,
并且作为一名数学爱好者,
I couldn't live with something and its opposite being equally true.
我无法忍受两个完全相反的事物 被认定为同样正确。
So, I went back to fundamentals, and I asked the question:
所以,我问了一个比较基本的问题:
What do online marketplaces really do?
在线市场究竟在做什么?
What do they do?
它们在做什么?
Well, at their core,
它们的核心原理
they're doing something very simple.
其实非常简单,
They match sellers and buyers.
就是将卖家与买家进行配对。
That's it.
就这么简单。
For drivers and passengers,
对于配对司机和乘客,
you get Uber, Grab in Southeast Asia
我们有 Uber、东南亚的 Grab,
or DiDi in China.
还有中国的滴滴。
For matching merchants and consumers,
对于配对商家和消费者,
you get Amazon, Alibaba or Jumia in Africa.
我们有Amazon (亚马逊), 阿里巴巴,和非洲的 Jumia。
And for housing, you get Airbnb;
对于租房,我们有 Airbnb (爱彼迎);
for fundraising, you get Kickstarter --
对于筹款,我们有 Kickstarter——
the list goes on.
诸如此类。
What all these examples have in common
而这些例子的共同点就是
is that they transition this basic functionality
他们将配对买卖双方
of matching sellers and buyers
的基本功能
from the physical world to the digital world.
从实体世界转移到了电子世界。
And by doing so,
通过这种方式,
they can find better matches,
他们能更好、更快地
do it faster
配对买卖双方,
and ultimately, unlock more value for everyone.
并且最终能让每个人 都得到更多价值。
In fact, online marketplaces' core benefit
事实上,在线市场的核心价值
is that they get us more from the same amount of effort.
就在于我们付出同等努力, 能从中获得更多回报。
For example,
比方说,
if you're a taxi driver in San Francisco
如果你是旧金山的一名出租车司机,
and you decide to work 10 hours per day,
你打算每天工作十个小时,
then you're actually having a paying passenger in your car
那么你每天十个小时里 将有四个小时
for four hours out of the 10.
在服务顾客。
If you take the same car and put it on a platform like Uber,
但如果你把同样的这辆车放到 像 Uber 这样的平台上,
you can have paying passengers
那么你每天就可以有
for an additional one and a half hours.
额外一个半小时在服务顾客。
This is the same car becoming 40 percent more productive.
同样一辆车就 比以前多了 40% 的收益。
And the same has been proven true for other online marketplaces.
同样的道理在 其他在线市场也适用。
By design, they create more value for the economy.
它们的设计就决定了 能为经济发展创造更多价值。
Now, we need to figure out who gets this additional value.
我们现在需要弄清楚, 究竟是谁得到了这些额外的价值。
You can give it to the drivers --
你可以把这些多余的利润给司机,
more passengers, more income.
更多的乘客意味着更多的收入。
You can give it to consumers, if you reduce prices.
你也可以通过降低乘车价格, 把这些利润分给乘客。
Or you can decide that the platform gets to keep all of it.
或者你也可以决定 由平台保留全部利润。
What usually happens is that all three of them
通常的情况是这三方
would somehow split it.
都会分得利润的一部分。
But what about the rest of us?
但这对于其他人意味着什么?
We can also be impacted
尽管并不处于
without being on either sides of this business.
这种商业模式的任何一侧, 我们也可能受到影响。
If my neighbor decides to rent his apartment on Airbnb,
如果我的邻居决定 在 Airbnb上出租他的公寓,
and we have more people coming in and out of the building,
我们居住的这栋楼 就会有更多人员出入,
more noise than usual,
带来比以往更多的噪音,
then I'm getting an unpleasant side effect of this productivity magic.
那么这种提高效率的商业魔法 就会带来令我不快的副作用。
This is what economists would call a "negative externality."
经济学家通常将其称为 “负面的外部效应”。
The negative externality of Uber cars becoming more productive
以纽约为例,Uber 车 变得更有效率
is taxi drivers seeing the value of their licenses drop
所带来的“负面的外部效应”
by as much as 30 percent in New York, for example.
是让出租车司机的牌照 贬值高达百分之三十。
This is the dark side.
这就是其黑暗的一面。
And this is what sparks street demonstrations
而这也是引起街头示威的导火索,
and sometimes, sometimes, even violence.
有时甚至会导致暴力冲突。
I profoundly believe this is avoidable.
我深切地认为这是可避免的。
And it became clearer to me
我在新兴市场待的时间越长,
the more I have spent time in emerging markets.
就越觉得如此。
In fact, during my time in Singapore,
事实上,在新加坡的那段时间里,
I spent half of any given week traveling in the region,
我每周都会花一半的时间
between Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia,
在马来西亚、泰国、 印度尼西亚之间往返,
and I became a user --
于是我成为了一名
actually, more of a fan --
使用当时还不太普及
of online marketplaces that were not that well-known back then.
的在线市场的用户—— 更确切地说,是一名粉丝。
But some of them made interesting strategic trade-offs
其中一些在线市场 做出了有趣的策略性取舍,
that dramatically reduced their side effects,
从而大幅减轻了它们的副作用,
their externalities.
也就是那些“外部影响”。
Take Gojek, for example.
以 Gojek 为例,
They're basically Uber for motor bikes.
他们本质上是摩托车界的 Uber,
They are one of the most liked online marketplaces in Indonesia,
也是印度尼西亚 最受欢迎的在线市场之一,
and this has a lot to do with the role they chose to play.
而其中很大一部分原因 在于他们选择扮演的角色。
Instead of picking a fight
他们选择
with every other transportation option out there,
将其他交通方式逐渐整合到
they choose to gradually integrate them within their own platform,
自己的平台中,而不是与其进行竞争。
so that without leaving the Gojek app,
所以用户不需要切换出 Gojek 的应用,
you can check the public transportation schedule
就能查看公共交通时间表,
and choose to take a bus for a long distance.
选择公交车作为长途出行的工具,
Then, maybe, a motorbike or a traditional taxi
或选择摩托车,传统的出租车,
that you can order and pay for from within the same app.
这些预约和付款都可以 在同一个应用中进行操作。
If you look at Gojek today,
根据 Gojek 现在的数据,
nine out of 10 previous motor taxi drivers
十个前摩的司机中就有九个
believe their quality of life has improved after joining the platform.
认为在加入这个平台之后 生活质量得到了改善。
And nine out of 10 consumers --
十个用户中有九个,
nine out of 10 --
90% 的用户——
believe that Gojek has a positive impact on society in general.
认为,总体而言,Gojek 对社会产生了积极的影响。
Now, this level of trust is what allowed Gojek to grow
正是这种程度的信任 使得 Gojek 成长为
into what is today a super online marketplace for everything
现在这样一个从食品杂货,
from food to grocery
甚至是按摩,洗衣店衣物提取等服务
even massages and laundry pickups.
都涵盖到的一个超级在线市场。
It all came from a deliberate trade-off
而这一切都源于一个 经过深思熟虑的取舍决定:
to be an orchestrator of a bigger ecosystem
成为更大的生态系统中的协调者,
where others also have their role to play,
让其他人也能参与进来,
instead of a single winner, a hero,
而不是成为单一的赢家,“英雄”,
that takes for himself what would, at the end, be a smaller pie.
到最后只能分到一个 更小的“蛋糕”(利润)。
Another interesting example is Jumia.
另一个有趣的例子是 Jumia,
Jumia is the equivalent of Amazon in Africa.
Jumia 相当于非洲的亚马逊。
But they don't generate the same level of fear
但他们不会让小企业圈
in the small-business community.
产生对 Amazon 那种程度的担忧。
And one of the reasons for that
其中的一个原因是
is because they have decided to actively invest
它们决定积极投资
in African entrepreneurs,
非洲的创业者,
to grow them into the digital age.
帮助他们成长, 以融入到数字时代中。
Now keep in mind,
请大家考虑到一点,
Jumia is operating in countries with some of the lowest digital literacy
Jumia 是在世界上数字素养 (运用电脑及网络资源的能力)
and digital connectivity scores in the world.
和数字连接得分最低的 几个国家进行经营。
Now they could have dealt with that
他们可以通过使用传统方法——
the usual way, through lobbying for reforms --
为普及计算机进行游说,
and they probably do that --
他们可能也正在这么做,
but they have also built Jumia University,
但同时,他们还建造了 Jumia 大学,
an e-learning platform
一个在线学习平台,
where merchants can come and learn basic digital and business skills.
通过它,商家能学到 基本的电子和商业知识。
We have studied online marketplaces in Africa last year.
去年,我们研究了 非洲的在线市场。
And during that study, we have met one of Jumia's merchants.
在研究过程中,我们认识了 一名使用 Jumia 的商户。
His name is Jomo.
他叫 Jomo。
He was fired from his job in 2014,
他在 2014 年被解雇,
and at that time, he decided he wanted to become his own boss.
在那时,他决定要当自己的老板。
He wanted to be independent.
他想变得独立,
He also wanted to never be fired again.
再也不想被解雇了。
So at that time,
但在那时,
Jomo had no clue what a business is.
Jomo 对做生意一窍不通。
So he needed to go through a series of trainings
他需要接受一系列培训,
to learn how to select products, how to price them
来学习该如何选择商品, 如何为它们定价,
and how to promote them online.
以及如何在网上推销这些产品。
Today, Jomo has a 10-employee online business.
现在,Jomo 的在线生意 已经拥有了十名员工。
And as of a few months ago,
就在几个月之前,
he just opened his very first brick-and-mortar shop
他刚在内罗毕 (肯尼亚首都) 郊区
in the suburbs of Nairobi.
开了自己的第一家实体店。
Now, through its university,
通过这所大学,
Jumia has the potential of helping a huge number of Jomos.
Jumia 将有潜力帮助到 更多像 Jomo 一样的人。
And we have estimated that together with other online marketplaces
根据我们的估计,到 2025 年, Jumia 和其他在非洲
on the continent,
的在线市场
they can generate three million additional jobs by 2025.
将能创造约三百万个 额外的工作岗位。
And they would do that either directly,
他们可以直接提供工作,
or through their impact on the wider community.
或通过对更广大社区 的影响,帮助就业。
And sometimes,
有时,
taking that wider impact into consideration
是否有考虑到对更广大群体
or forgetting about it
造成的影响
can make or break a platform.
将决定一个平台的成败。
To illustrate that, let's go back to Singapore.
为了说明这一点, 让我们回到新加坡。
So, when we decided with my wife to leave the country last year,
去年,我和妻子决定离开新加坡,
Uber decided to do the same.
与此同时, Uber 也做出了同样的决定。
At the same time,
在那时,
again, we started to see that pattern,
我们又开始看到那个规律。
but maybe it's a coincidence.
但也许那只是一个巧合。
In reality, Uber lost the ride-hailing battle
事实上,Uber 在 即时用车领域输给了
to a Malaysian-born start-up called Grab.
始创于马来西亚 的初创公司 Grab。
Now, interestingly,
有趣的是,
my wife didn't have the same level of concerns with Grab,
我妻子对 Grab 并没有 和对 Uber 同样程度的担忧。
because when Grab started, it had a different name.
因为 Grab 最开始有另一个名字,
It was called MyTeksi,
MyTeksi(“我的出租车”),
and as the name suggests, it started as a platform for taxis.
顾名思义,它刚开始 是一个针对出租车的平台。
So when Grab started expanding the driver pool beyond taxis,
所以当 Grab 后来开始 把业务拓展到其他出行工具时,
it was seen as gradual and reasonable.
大众都将其视为一个 渐进而合理的过程。
They were also very careful while doing so.
他们在拓展业务的时候 也非常小心谨慎。
They thought of what kind of social safety net
他们考虑到了该带给所有司机
they should bring to all drivers.
什么样的社会安全网络。
So they put in place special insurance packages
他们为司机落实了 特殊的保险计划,
and even financial education programs.
甚至还有理财教育的项目。
Now, compare that with what happened in London,
与之相比,伦敦、纽约、巴黎
in New York, in Paris,
的出租车司机们
where taxi drivers didn't feel that the platforms understood
觉得那些平台并没有认识到
they had to pay 200,000 euros for their license --
他们还要为自己的牌照 付二十万欧元,
and mostly in loans.
而且通常是以贷款的方式。
When you don't take that kind of social environmental information
当你不考虑到这些
into account,
社会环境信息时,
you get strong reactions.
你就会得到一些激烈的反应。
I'm not trying to argue that the trade-offs
我并不是说 Grab, Jumia,Gojek
by either Grab or Jumia or Gojek are risk-free.
所采取的取舍就是无风险的。
Did they slow down growth at some point, temporarily?
他们在某段时间 有暂时减缓发展的步伐吗?
Maybe.
也许有。
But look at them today.
但看看现在。
Gojek is worth 10 billion dollars.
Gojek 现在价值一百亿美元。
Jumia is one of only three unicorns in the whole of Africa.
Jumia 是整个非洲仅有的 三家独角兽公司之一。
And Grab, well, they pushed out Uber
Grab 将 Uber 挤出了
out of the whole region of Southeast Asia.
整个东南亚地区。
And I also think these trade-offs have nothing specific to emerging markets.
我也认为这些取舍 并不只适用于新兴市场。
Amazon or Uber or others can learn from them
亚马逊,优步等大企业 也可以从中学习,
and adapt them to their own realities.
并运用到自己的实际情况中。
In the long run,
从长远的角度看,
this doesn't need to be a zero-sum game.
这不需要是一场零和博弈 (一方得益一方受损的局面)。
In the long run --
从长远的角度看——
and this is maybe the Asian side of me speaking --
这个观点可能是 我的亚洲思维使然——
it pays to be patient.
耐心点是有好处的。
It pays to reconsider your goal and your priorities
根据一个更大的等式来重新考虑
in the light of a much bigger equation
你的目标和优先级是值得的,
that includes you and your users, of course,
这个等式包括你和你的用户,
but also it includes regulators,
当然也包括监管者、
policymakers, your communities.
政策制定者和社会共同体。
And I would argue, above all,
而且我认为,这个等式
it includes the very businesses you are meant to disrupt.
首先应包括那些会被你 (的平台)颠覆的企业。
Thank you.
谢谢大家。
(Applause)
(掌声)