In February 2013, my wife and I moved to Singapore.
2013 年 2 月， 我和妻子搬去了新加坡。
Exactly at the same time,
Uber has announced it started operations in the country.
Now, my wife and I agree on a lot of things,
but using Uber was definitely not one of them.
但使用 Uber 绝不是其中之一。
While I was excited about the technology
and how maybe we don't need to own cars anymore,
she felt that every Uber car is here to steal jobs from taxi drivers.
她却认为每一辆在这儿的 Uber 都在从当地出租车司机手里抢工作。
And Sarah was not the only one.
莎拉（我妻子） 并不是唯一 一个这么想的人。
As the Ubers, Airbnbs and Amazons of the world --
what we call "online marketplaces" --
Uber (优步)，Airbnb (爱彼迎)， Amazon (亚马逊) 等
as they started expanding their presence,
we have heard, all of us, countless policymakers
worried about how to deal with these new risks
of job destruction, lower wages and tax leakage.
We've also heard company leaders
worried about aggressive competition from global platforms
eating up their local businesses.
And on the rational level, of course I understand.
After all, this is basic supply and demand economics.
If, in any market, you dramatically increase supply,
you should expect prices, profitability and growth to go down
for existing players.
But in my personal experience,
I've also seen the other side of the story.
Where online marketplaces,
like Gojek in Indonesia or Jumia in Africa,
非洲的 Jumia 等在线市场，
have helped their business ecosystems and the communities around them.
The positive side I have seen
demonstrated itself in a woman, a taxi driver in Egypt,
that now had the opportunity to work
without the harassment she faced in the taxi business.
It demonstrated itself through a village in Kenya
that got an economic boost,
because the nearby beautiful but completely unknown lake
is now becoming a national ecotourism spot.
Online marketplaces will continue to grow.
And they will transform the way we shop,
and the way we transact with each other.
So we really need to understand
where is the truth between those two stories.
Should we expect more of the bright side
or more of the dark and worrying side?
And is there a way to get the first without getting the second?
I believe there is.
As a strategy consultant, I study businesses for a living.
And as a mathematician at heart,
I couldn't live with something and its opposite being equally true.
So, I went back to fundamentals, and I asked the question:
What do online marketplaces really do?
Well, at their core,
they're doing something very simple.
They match sellers and buyers.
For drivers and passengers,
you get Uber, Grab in Southeast Asia
我们有 Uber、东南亚的 Grab,
or DiDi in China.
For matching merchants and consumers,
you get Amazon, Alibaba or Jumia in Africa.
我们有Amazon (亚马逊)， 阿里巴巴，和非洲的 Jumia。
And for housing, you get Airbnb;
对于租房，我们有 Airbnb (爱彼迎)；
for fundraising, you get Kickstarter --
What all these examples have in common
is that they transition this basic functionality
of matching sellers and buyers
from the physical world to the digital world.
they can find better matches,
and ultimately, unlock more value for everyone.
In fact, online marketplaces' core benefit
is that they get us more from the same amount of effort.
if you're a taxi driver in San Francisco
and you decide to work 10 hours per day,
then you're actually having a paying passenger in your car
for four hours out of the 10.
If you take the same car and put it on a platform like Uber,
但如果你把同样的这辆车放到 像 Uber 这样的平台上，
you can have paying passengers
for an additional one and a half hours.
This is the same car becoming 40 percent more productive.
同样一辆车就 比以前多了 40% 的收益。
And the same has been proven true for other online marketplaces.
By design, they create more value for the economy.
Now, we need to figure out who gets this additional value.
You can give it to the drivers --
more passengers, more income.
You can give it to consumers, if you reduce prices.
Or you can decide that the platform gets to keep all of it.
What usually happens is that all three of them
would somehow split it.
But what about the rest of us?
We can also be impacted
without being on either sides of this business.
If my neighbor decides to rent his apartment on Airbnb,
如果我的邻居决定 在 Airbnb上出租他的公寓，
and we have more people coming in and out of the building,
more noise than usual,
then I'm getting an unpleasant side effect of this productivity magic.
This is what economists would call a "negative externality."
The negative externality of Uber cars becoming more productive
以纽约为例，Uber 车 变得更有效率
is taxi drivers seeing the value of their licenses drop
by as much as 30 percent in New York, for example.
This is the dark side.
And this is what sparks street demonstrations
and sometimes, sometimes, even violence.
I profoundly believe this is avoidable.
And it became clearer to me
the more I have spent time in emerging markets.
In fact, during my time in Singapore,
I spent half of any given week traveling in the region,
between Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia,
and I became a user --
actually, more of a fan --
of online marketplaces that were not that well-known back then.
But some of them made interesting strategic trade-offs
that dramatically reduced their side effects,
Take Gojek, for example.
以 Gojek 为例，
They're basically Uber for motor bikes.
They are one of the most liked online marketplaces in Indonesia,
and this has a lot to do with the role they chose to play.
Instead of picking a fight
with every other transportation option out there,
they choose to gradually integrate them within their own platform,
so that without leaving the Gojek app,
所以用户不需要切换出 Gojek 的应用，
you can check the public transportation schedule
and choose to take a bus for a long distance.
Then, maybe, a motorbike or a traditional taxi
that you can order and pay for from within the same app.
If you look at Gojek today,
根据 Gojek 现在的数据，
nine out of 10 previous motor taxi drivers
believe their quality of life has improved after joining the platform.
And nine out of 10 consumers --
nine out of 10 --
believe that Gojek has a positive impact on society in general.
Now, this level of trust is what allowed Gojek to grow
正是这种程度的信任 使得 Gojek 成长为
into what is today a super online marketplace for everything
from food to grocery
even massages and laundry pickups.
It all came from a deliberate trade-off
to be an orchestrator of a bigger ecosystem
where others also have their role to play,
instead of a single winner, a hero,
that takes for himself what would, at the end, be a smaller pie.
Another interesting example is Jumia.
Jumia is the equivalent of Amazon in Africa.
But they don't generate the same level of fear
in the small-business community.
产生对 Amazon 那种程度的担忧。
And one of the reasons for that
is because they have decided to actively invest
in African entrepreneurs,
to grow them into the digital age.
Now keep in mind,
Jumia is operating in countries with some of the lowest digital literacy
Jumia 是在世界上数字素养 (运用电脑及网络资源的能力)
and digital connectivity scores in the world.
Now they could have dealt with that
the usual way, through lobbying for reforms --
and they probably do that --
but they have also built Jumia University,
但同时，他们还建造了 Jumia 大学，
an e-learning platform
where merchants can come and learn basic digital and business skills.
We have studied online marketplaces in Africa last year.
And during that study, we have met one of Jumia's merchants.
在研究过程中，我们认识了 一名使用 Jumia 的商户。
His name is Jomo.
He was fired from his job in 2014,
他在 2014 年被解雇，
and at that time, he decided he wanted to become his own boss.
He wanted to be independent.
He also wanted to never be fired again.
Jomo had no clue what a business is.
So he needed to go through a series of trainings
to learn how to select products, how to price them
and how to promote them online.
Today, Jomo has a 10-employee online business.
现在，Jomo 的在线生意 已经拥有了十名员工。
And as of a few months ago,
he just opened his very first brick-and-mortar shop
他刚在内罗毕 (肯尼亚首都) 郊区
in the suburbs of Nairobi.
Now, through its university,
Jumia has the potential of helping a huge number of Jomos.
Jumia 将有潜力帮助到 更多像 Jomo 一样的人。
And we have estimated that together with other online marketplaces
根据我们的估计，到 2025 年， Jumia 和其他在非洲
they can generate three million additional jobs by 2025.
And they would do that either directly,
or through their impact on the wider community.
taking that wider impact into consideration
or forgetting about it
can make or break a platform.
To illustrate that, let's go back to Singapore.
So, when we decided with my wife to leave the country last year,
Uber decided to do the same.
与此同时， Uber 也做出了同样的决定。
again, we started to see that pattern,
but maybe it's a coincidence.
In reality, Uber lost the ride-hailing battle
事实上，Uber 在 即时用车领域输给了
to a Malaysian-born start-up called Grab.
始创于马来西亚 的初创公司 Grab。
my wife didn't have the same level of concerns with Grab,
我妻子对 Grab 并没有 和对 Uber 同样程度的担忧。
because when Grab started, it had a different name.
因为 Grab 最开始有另一个名字，
It was called MyTeksi,
and as the name suggests, it started as a platform for taxis.
So when Grab started expanding the driver pool beyond taxis,
所以当 Grab 后来开始 把业务拓展到其他出行工具时，
it was seen as gradual and reasonable.
They were also very careful while doing so.
They thought of what kind of social safety net
they should bring to all drivers.
So they put in place special insurance packages
and even financial education programs.
Now, compare that with what happened in London,
in New York, in Paris,
where taxi drivers didn't feel that the platforms understood
they had to pay 200,000 euros for their license --
and mostly in loans.
When you don't take that kind of social environmental information
you get strong reactions.
I'm not trying to argue that the trade-offs
我并不是说 Grab， Jumia，Gojek
by either Grab or Jumia or Gojek are risk-free.
Did they slow down growth at some point, temporarily?
But look at them today.
Gojek is worth 10 billion dollars.
Jumia is one of only three unicorns in the whole of Africa.
Jumia 是整个非洲仅有的 三家独角兽公司之一。
And Grab, well, they pushed out Uber
Grab 将 Uber 挤出了
out of the whole region of Southeast Asia.
And I also think these trade-offs have nothing specific to emerging markets.
Amazon or Uber or others can learn from them
and adapt them to their own realities.
In the long run,
this doesn't need to be a zero-sum game.
In the long run --
and this is maybe the Asian side of me speaking --
it pays to be patient.
It pays to reconsider your goal and your priorities
in the light of a much bigger equation
that includes you and your users, of course,
but also it includes regulators,
policymakers, your communities.
And I would argue, above all,
it includes the very businesses you are meant to disrupt.