最危险国家通往安全之路 Rachel Kleinfeld: A path to security for the world's deadliest countries

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演员: Rachel Kleinfeld


台词
Picture your dream vacation.
想象一个你梦想中的假期。
Maybe you're dying to go to Rio for Carnival.
也许你十分想去里约的狂欢节,
Or you really just want to hang out on a Mexican beach.
或者只想在墨西哥的沙滩上闲逛,
Or maybe you're going to join me in New Orleans for Jazz Fest.
又或者跟我一起去 新奥尔良的爵士音乐节。
Now, I know it's less pleasant,
现在,想象一些
but picture, for a moment,
不那么令人开心的画面,
one of the most violent places on earth.
一个世界上最暴力丛生的地方。
Did anyone think of the same place?
大家和我想的是同一个地方吗?
Brazil is the most violent country in the world today.
巴西是如今世上最动乱的国家之一。
More people have been dying there over the last three years
过去三年里丧命于此的人
than in Syria.
比在叙利亚的还多。
And in Mexico, more people have died over the last 15 years
而在墨西哥, 过去十五年里死亡的人
than in Iraq or Afghanistan.
比在伊拉克或阿富汗的还要多。
In New Orleans, more people per capita are dying
在新奥尔良,人均死亡率
than in war-torn Somalia.
高于战火不断的索马里。
The fact is, war only results
事实上,死于战争的人数
in about 18 percent of violent deaths worldwide.
只占全世界因暴力死亡的 18%。
Today, you are more likely to die violently
如今,如果你生活在 拥有高程度收入不平等
if you live in a middle-income democracy
与严重政治极端化的
with high levels of income inequality
中等收入民主国家,
and serious political polarization.
你更可能死于暴力而不是战争。
The United States has four of the 50 most violent cities on earth.
全世界暴力活动最频繁的 五十个城市中,有四个在美国。
Now, this is a fundamental alteration in the nature of violence, historically.
从历史层面来讲, 暴力的性质发生了根本变化。
But it's also an opportunity.
但这也为我们提供了一种机遇。
Because while few people can do much to end war,
因为很少有人 能做些什么来终止战争,
violence in our democracies is our problem.
民主社会中的暴力 就是我们面临的问题。
And while regular voters are a big part of that problem,
即使选民占这个问题中 很大的一部分,
we're also key to the solution.
我们仍是解决问题的关键。
Now, I work at a think tank,
现在我就职于一个智库——
the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,
卡内基国际和平基金会,
where I advise governments on what to do about violence,
在这里,我为政府提供 对抗暴力的相关建议。
but the dirty secret is,
但一个难以启齿的秘密是,
most policymakers haven't figured out these changes to violence today.
大多数决策人还未意识到 如今暴力所发生的改变。
They still believe that the worst violence happens in countries at war
他们仍然相信 最严重的暴力发生在战乱国家
or places that are too poor, too weak,
或者处于极端贫穷,弱势,
to fight violence and control crime.
以至于不能战胜暴力 和控制犯罪的地方。
And that had been my assumption too.
这些也曾是我的猜想。
But if you look at a map of the most violent places on earth,
但如果你看看世界上 那些最暴力的地方,
you see something strange.
你会发现很多疑点。
Some of them are at war,
他们有些处于战争中,
and a few are truly failed states.
有些是真正衰落的国家。
The violence in these places is horrific,
暴力在这些地方十分令人恐惧,
but they happen to have small populations,
但是这些地区的总人口也少,
so it actually affects few people.
所以只会影响少数的人。
Then there's South Africa, Brazil, Venezuela.
接着是南非、巴西、委内瑞拉。
These places are not poor.
这些地方并不贫穷,
Maybe they're weak.
也许只是国力较弱。
My research assistant and I mapped places
我和我的实验助手 根据是否能成功
based on how well they delivered on World Bank projects
履行世界银行项目,
and whether they could get public services to their people,
和能否给公民提供公共服务 列出了一些地区。
and if you did well on both of those,
如果在这两方面都做得很好,
if you could get sanitation and electricity to your people
如果能给公民提供卫生和电力、
and deliver vaccines,
疫苗接种,
you were in the upper right-hand quadrant.
你将被列于右上方的区域里。
And then we overlaid that
然后我们用一幅
with a map of places where journalists were being murdered.
标记了记者被杀害地点的地图将其覆盖。
Some were happening in weak states,
有些命案发生在脆弱的国家,
but an awful lot of journalists were being killed
但极多的记者在那些
in places plenty capable of protecting them.
有足够能力保护他们的地方遇害。
I traveled to every settled continent on earth,
我去过世界上每一个安定的大陆,
comparing places that had faced massive violence and recovered
比较过那些经历过战乱并恢复的
and those that hadn't,
和还未经历过战乱的地区,
and I kept seeing the same pattern.
并从中发现了一种规律。
I came to call it "privilege violence,"
我称它为“特权暴力”,
because it happened in highly unequal democracies,
因为它发生于有少部分人
where a small group of people
想要掌握无节制的权力的
wanted to hold on to inordinate power and privilege.
极度不平等的民主国家。
And if they didn't think they could get those policies past the voters,
如果他们觉得 这些政策不能被选民认同,
sometimes they would turn to violent groups for help.
那他们有时可能就会 寻求暴力分子的帮助。
Drug cartels would finance their campaigns.
贩毒集团会资助他们的竞选。
Organized criminals would help them get out the vote.
有组织的犯罪分子 能帮助他们获得投票。
Gangs would suppress the vote.
帮派能压制投票。
And in exchange, they'd be given free reign,
他们还以随意作乱的权力作为交换,
and violence would grow.
暴力因此而滋长。
Take Venezuela.
以委内瑞拉为例,
It's the most violent country in the world today,
如果以人均死亡率为标准,
if you look at deaths per capita.
这里就是世界上最动荡的国家。
Twenty years ago, the current regime gained power in legitimate elections,
二十年前,当今政权 从正当选举中获得权力,
but they didn't want to risk losing it,
但他们不想冒失去权力的风险。
and so they turned to gangs, called "colectivos," for help.
于是他们向一个叫“集体党”的帮派求助。
The gangs were told to get out the vote for the government
这个帮派被指派去搞定政府的投票,
and force people to vote for the regime in some neighborhoods
并强迫一些地区的选民给此政权投票,
and keep opposition voters away from the polls in others,
并迫使反对派的选民无法参与投票。
and, in exchange, they'd be given control.
作为交换,他们将拥有控制权。
But if criminals have control,
而一旦罪犯拥有控制权,
then police and courts can't do their jobs.
警察和法庭就无法履行职责。
So the second stage in privilege violence
所以特权暴力的第二阶段
is that courts and police are weakened,
就是法庭和警察的权力被削弱,
and politicians politicize budgets,
政客使财政预算政治化,
hiring, firing,
随意雇佣和开除某些人,
so that they and the violent groups that they collude with stay out of jail.
这样他们和与之勾结的暴力组织 就能免受牢狱之灾。
Now, pretty soon, good cops leave,
于是很快,好的警察都离开了,
and many that remain become brutal.
剩下的警察很多都变得冷酷。
They start off, usually, with rough justice.
一开始,他们大多都秉行绝对的正义,
They kill a drug dealer that they think would be let off by the corrupt courts.
支持处死那些很可能 会被腐败法庭宽恕的毒贩。
But over time, the worst of them realize that there will be no repercussions
但渐渐地,他们中最坏的那部分人 意识到,这样做并不会
from the politicians they're in bed with,
让他们从与他们同谋的政客 那里得到回报,
and they go into business for themselves.
所以他们开始为自己谋利。
In Venezuela, nearly one in three murders is by the security services.
在委内瑞拉,几乎三分之一的凶杀案 都发生在安保服务业。
Now, the poor are hit hardest by violence all over the world,
世界各地的贫穷群体 受暴力影响最深,
but they're hardly going to turn to such predatory cops for help.
但他们几乎从不向这些 欺凌弱小的警察寻求帮助。
So they tend to form vigilante groups.
所以他们往往组成义务警团。
But arm a bunch of 18-year-old boys,
但让一群十八岁男孩武装起来,
and pretty soon, they devolve into gangs over time.
很快他们就会被移交给帮派。
Other gangs come in, mafias come in,
随后更多的帮派和黑手党加入进来,
and they offer to protect people from the other criminals
他们提出能保护人们免受罪犯
and from the police.
和警察的伤害。
Unlike the state,
与国家政府不同,
the criminals often try to buy legitimacy.
罪犯通常通过收买取得其正当性。
They give charity. They solve disputes.
他们做慈善,解决争端。
Sometimes, they even build subsidized housing.
有时甚至修建补助房。
The last stage of privilege violence happens when regular people
特权暴力的最后一个阶段是,
start committing a significant portion of the murder.
普通民众也开始 实施相当一部分的谋杀。
Bar fights and neighborhood arguments turn deadly
酒吧斗殴和邻里间的争执变得致命,
when violence has become normal
同时暴力成为一种正常现象,
and repercussions have evaporated.
也不再有对这些事件的处置。
To outsiders, the culture looks depraved,
在外人看来, 这种文化是堕落的,
as if something is deeply wrong with those people.
好像这些人的本性坏到了极点。
But any country can become this violent
但如果当地政府玩忽职守,恃强凌弱,
when the government is, by turns, absent and predatory.
每个国家都可能变得这样暴力。
Actually, that's not quite true --
其实这样说也不完全正确——
it takes one more step for this level of violence to reign.
达到这种程度的 暴力统治还需要一步。
It takes mainstream society
还需要主流社会
to ignore the problem.
忽视这个问题。
You'd think that would be impossible,
你会觉得这是不可能的,
that violence at this level would be unbearable,
这种程度的暴力是无法忍受的,
but it's actually quite bearable to people like you and me.
但其实像你我这样的人 对这类事件的忍受度是很高的。
That's because, in every society in the world,
因为世界上的每一个社会,
even the most violent,
即使是最暴力的那些,
violence is highly concentrated.
当地的暴力活动也都是高度集中的。
It happens to people on the wrong side of town,
它发生于生活在 城市衰败那一边的人们中间,
people who are poor, often darker,
这些人很贫穷, 通常为有色人种。
often from groups that are marginalized,
通常来自被边缘化的群体,
groups that mainstream society can separate ourselves from.
属于那些主流社会与之区分的群体。
Violence is so concentrated
暴力是如此集中,
that we're shocked when the pattern deviates.
以至于当形势偏离常规时, 我们会感到惊讶。
In Washington, DC, in 2001,
2001 年, 在华盛顿哥伦比亚特区,
a young white college-educated intern
一名大学毕业的白人实习生
went missing after a hike in Northwest DC,
在前往华盛顿西北部徒步后失踪。
and her case was in the papers nearly every day.
关于她的案件的报道 几乎每天都出现在报纸上。
On the other side of town,
同一年,在城市的另一边,
a black man had been killed every other day that year.
每隔一天就有一名黑人被杀害。
Most of those cases never made the papers even once.
大多数这样的案件 却从来没有上过报纸。
Middle class society buys their way out of violence.
中产阶级靠钱来远离暴力。
We live in better neighborhoods.
比如住在更好的社区,
Some people buy private security.
有些人还付钱请安保。
And we also tell ourselves a story.
我们还告诉自己,
We tell ourselves that most of the people who are killed
大多数被杀害的人
are probably involved in crime themselves.
可能自己就参与了犯罪。
By believing that somehow some people deserve to be murdered,
我们相信有些人就是活该被杀害,
otherwise good people allow ourselves to live
而好人允许自己生活在
in places where life chances are so deeply skewed.
一个完全不同的环境中。
We allow ourselves.
我们允许自己这样做。
Because, after all, what else can you do?
因为,毕竟, 除此之外你还能做什么?
Well, it turns out, quite a lot.
事实上,能做的还有很多。
Because violence today is not largely the result of war
因为当今的暴力大多数不是源于战争,
but is because of rotten politics in our democracies,
而是民主制度下的腐败政治,
regular voters are the greatest force for change.
常规选民是制造改变的主力军。
Consider the transformation of Bogotá.
回想波哥大(哥伦比亚首都)的转变。
In 1994, Colombia's incoming president
1994 年,哥伦比亚即将上任的总统
was caught taking millions of dollars in campaign contributions
遭到揭发:其选举筹款中
from the Cali drug cartel,
有数百万美元是来自卡利贩毒集团,
and the capital was overrun with gangs and paramilitary groups.
首都被帮派和非法军事组织占领。
But fed-up voters overcame really rabid partisanship,
但忍无可忍的选民们 战胜了狂暴的党派,
and they delivered nearly two-thirds of the vote
并把三分之二的选票投给了
to an independent candidate,
一个独立的参选者,
enough to really overcome business as usual.
这足够让问题得到解决了。
On Mayor Mockus's first day in office,
市长莫茨库斯上任的第一天,
the police barely bothered to even brief him on homicide,
警察甚至都不想 向他简要汇报凶杀案情况,
and when he asked why, they just shrugged and said,
他问警察为什么, 他们只是耸耸肩说,
"It's just criminals killing criminals."
“不过就是罪犯互相残杀罢了。”
The corrupt city council
腐败的市政府
wanted to give police even more impunity for brutality.
想给警察更多 实施暴行,免受刑罚的权力。
It's a really common tactic that's used worldwide
这是一种在世界上广为使用的策略——
when politicians want to posture as tough on crime
政客只想要做出严惩罪犯的样子,
but don't actually want to change the status quo.
但其实并不想改变现状。
And research shows it backfires all over the world.
调查显示,这在全世界 都产生了适得其反的效果。
If you throw a lot of low-level offenders into jails,
如果你把很多的轻罪罪犯关进
usually already overcrowded jails,
通常已经人满为患的监狱,
they learn from each other and they harden.
他们会互相学习并且变本加厉,
They start to control the prisons, and from there, the streets.
他们从掌控监狱开始, 进而掌控街道。
Instead, Mockus insisted that police begin investigating every death.
相反,莫茨库斯坚持要求警察 开始详细调查每一宗死亡案件。
He fought the right-wing city council,
他与右翼市政府相抗争,
and he abandoned SWAT-style police tactics.
并放弃了使用特警队的策略。
And he fought the left-wing unions
他还与左翼联盟抗争,
and fired thousands of predatory cops.
解雇了数千名欺凌弱小的警察。
Honest police were finally free to do their jobs.
正直的警察终于可以自由履行职责。
Mockus then challenged citizens.
随后莫茨库斯挑战其公民。
He asked the middle class to stop opting out of their city,
他要求中产阶级停止搬离城市,
to follow traffic laws
遵守交通规则,
and otherwise behave as if they shared the same community of fate.
要表现得像是他们在共同承担 这座城市的命运一样。
He asked the poor to uphold social norms against violence,
他要求穷人在 人身安全受到巨大威胁时,
often at immense personal risk.
坚持履行社会规范,反对暴力。
And he asked the wealthy to give 10 percent more in taxes, voluntarily.
他要求富人 自愿多缴纳百分之十的税。
Sixty-three thousand people did.
六万三千人这么做了。
And at the end of the decade that spanned Mayor Mockus's two terms in office,
在莫茨库斯长达十年的 两个任期的末尾,
homicide in Bogotá was down 70 percent.
波哥大的凶杀案减少了百分之七十。
Audience: Whoo!
观众:喔!
(Applause)
(掌声)
People in places with the most violence,
生活在最暴力地区的人们,
whether it's Colombia or the United States,
不管是在哥伦比亚还是美国,
can make the biggest difference.
都可以创造巨大的改变。
The most important thing we can do is abandon the notion
我们能做的最重要的事情, 就是放弃这样的观念:
that some lives are just worth less than others,
有些生命的价值 就是不如其他的生命,
that someone deserves to be raped or murdered,
有些人活该被强奸或杀害,
because after all, they did something,
因为毕竟,他们做了某些事情——
they stole or they did something to land themselves in prison
偷窃或是其他事情—— 让他们进了监狱,
where that kind of thing happens.
他们罪有应得。
This devaluing of human life,
这种对人性的蔑视,
a devaluing we barely admit even to ourselves,
一种连我们自己 都不太会承认的蔑视,
is what allows the whole downward spiral to begin.
正是这种恶性循环产生的原因。
It's what allows a bullet shot in a gang war in Rio
正是它,让里约帮派战争中的
to lodge in the head of a two-year-old girl
子弹深嵌在了 正在附近的攀玩架上玩耍的
climbing on a jungle gym nearby.
两岁小姑娘的头颅里。
And it's what allows a SWAT team hunting for a meth dealer in Georgia
正是它,让在佐治亚 追踪着冰毒贩卖者的特警
to throw a flash bang grenade into the crib of a little boy,
把闪光弹扔进了 一个小男孩的摇篮里,
exploding near his face and maiming him for life.
炸弹在他的脸旁边爆炸, 造成了他的终生残疾。
The fact is, most violence everywhere
事实上,大多数暴力
happens to people on the wrong side of town
在错误的时间,发生在
at the wrong time,
生活于城市衰败一侧的人们身上,
and some of those people are from communities
他们当中有些人
that we consider quite different.
来自我们认为和我们不同的群体。
Some of them are people who have done horrible things.
有些人做过可怕的事。
But reducing violence begins with privileging every human life,
但减少暴力应该从 珍视每个人的生命开始,
both because it's right
不仅因为这是正确的,
and because only by prizing each life as worthy of at least due process,
也因为只有当我们能 至少按正当程序珍视每个人的生命,
can we create societies in which the lives of innocents are safe.
我们才能创造出让每个无辜生命 都安然无恙的社会。
Second, recognize that today,
其次,我们要认识到,
inequality within our countries
如今,国家内部的不平等
is a vastly greater cause of violence than war between countries.
是超越国家间战争的主要暴力来源。
Now, inequality leads to violence for a whole host of reasons,
不平等造成暴力的原因有很多,
but one of them is that it lets us separate ourselves
但其中之一就是我们任由自己
from what's happening on the other side of town.
与城市另一边发生的事情划清界限。
Those of us who are middle-class or wealthy,
我们当中从这些系统获益的
who are benefiting from these systems,
中产阶级或富裕阶层,
have to change them at immense cost to ourselves.
需要付出极大的代价做出改变。
We have to pay enough taxes
我们需要缴纳足够的税,
and then demand that our governments put good teachers in other kids' schools
再要求政府在其他小孩的学校里 安排优秀的老师,
and well-trained police to protect other peoples' neighborhoods.
要求训练有素的警察去 保护其他人的社区。
But, of course, that's not going to do any good
但当然,如果政府 从中贪污或助长暴力,
if the government is stealing the money or fueling the violence,
这么做依然不会带来任何好处。
and so we also need better politicians with better incentives.
因此我们还需要更优秀的、 动机更善良的政治家。
The fact is, we actually know a lot about what it takes to reduce violence.
事实上,我们其实非常了解 减少暴力所需的措施,
It's policies like putting more cops
比如在暴力现象最严重的地方
in the few places where most violence occurs.
安插更多的警力。
But they don't fit easily into the boxes of the Left or the Right,
但这样的政客通常并不能 被轻易地划分成左翼或右翼,
and so you need really honest politicians
所以你需要非常诚实的、
who are willing to buck knee-jerk partisanship
能够随机应变的党派,
and implement solutions.
和能施行恰当措施的政治家。
And if we want good politicians to run,
同时,如果我们想要好的政治家掌权,
we need to start respecting politicians.
我们就需要开始尊重政治家。
There's also a lot we can do to fight privilege violence in other countries.
对于对抗其他国家的特权暴力, 我们能做的还有很多。
The most violent regimes tend to be fueled by drugs,
最暴力的政权往往是因毒品所致,
and then they launder the profits through financial systems
他们通过纽约和伦敦的财政系统
in New York and London,
通过房地产交易,
through real-estate transactions,
或者高端度假村
and through high-end resorts.
使获利看起来正当合法。
If you use drugs,
如果你吸毒,
know your supply chain top to bottom,
你就得清楚了解整个供应链,
or admit the amount of pain you're willing to cause others
或者承认你宁愿给他人制造痛苦
for your own pleasure.
来获取自身的快乐。
Meanwhile, I would love to see one of those tourist sites
同时,我很希望看见这些度假村
team up with investigative journalists
和调查记者合作,
and create a little tiny icon --
在免费 WIFI 或者游泳池的标记旁边
right next to the one for free WiFi and if a place has a swimming pool,
加上一个小小的标志——
there could be a little tiny gun
一把小枪,
for "likely criminal money-laundering front."
表示“洗钱犯罪可能发生点”。
(Laughter)
(笑声)
(Applause)
(鼓掌)
But until then,
但在此之前,
if you're booking a place in a dangerous country,
如果你在危险的国家订酒店,
whether that's Jamaica or New Orleans,
无论在牙买加还是新奥尔良,
do a little web research,
先提前在网上查一查,
see if you can see any criminal ties.
看看能否找到该地点的 犯罪相关记录。
And, to make that easier,
或者,简单一些,
support legislation
支持那些
that makes our financial systems more transparent --
让我们的金融系统更加透明的立法——
things like banning anonymous company ownership.
比如禁止匿名企业所有权。
Now, this all probably sounds pretty quixotic,
这些听起来可能都有些不切实际,
kind of like recycling your cans,
有点像回收罐头,
just a tiny drop in the ocean of a gigantic problem,
对解决问题来说只是杯水车薪,
but that's actually a misconception.
但这实际上是一种误解。
Homicide has been falling for centuries.
凶杀案的发生率 已经连续下降了好几个世纪。
Battle deaths have been dropping for decades.
因战乱导致的死亡人数也在持续下降。
In places where people have demanded change,
在人们呼吁改变的地方,
violent death has fallen, from Colombia to New York City,
死于暴力的情况就会有所下降, 从哥伦比亚到纽约都是如此,
where homicide is down 85 percent since 1990.
从 1990 年至今, 杀人案已经减少了 85%。
The fact is, violence will always be with us,
事实是,暴力将永远伴随着我们,
but it's not a constant.
但它不是一种常态。
It has been falling for centuries, and it could fall further faster.
它在过去的几百年里一直在减少, 并且以后还可以减少得更快。
Could it drop by 25 percent in the next quarter century, a third?
它是否能在下一个二十五年内 减少 25%,或是三分之一?
Many of us actually think it could.
很多人相信这是可能的。
I think of all the kids who'd grow up with their dads,
我相信所有孩子都可以 有父亲陪伴他们成长,
all the families that get their sisters back,
所有兄弟姐妹都可以
their brothers.
回归他们的家庭。
All it needs is one small push.
而这一切仅需一些小小的推动力。
It needs us to care.
只需要我们发自内心的关切。
Thank you.
谢谢大家。
(Applause)
(掌声)